056
FXUS61 KALY 070628
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
228 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO TRACK
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALSO
CONTINUED TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK, AND WILL MESSAGE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:30 AM EDT...999 MB SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC, WITH A 1015 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC LOW IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, AND WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS WHERE THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, BUT THESE
SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS).
TODAY, WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER TROUGHING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND OVERLAPS WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN. THIS FORCING
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME BENEFICIAL (ALBEIT LIGHT)
RAIN FOR MANY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEADING TO SOME POCKETS
OF LIMITED INSTABILITY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THANKFULLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR VALLEY
AREAS. IT WILL BE LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING SFC
HIGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS 20-30
MPH TODAY.
TONIGHT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES
CLEAR, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE 40S AND
50S. MONDAY, WE WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH CONTINUED
COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 70S TO LOW 80S) AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RADIATE INTO THE 40S
AND 50S MONDAY NIGHT UNDER THE SFC HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TUESDAY, THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
SETTING UP WARMER/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAWING CLOSER TO OUR REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WE CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPS FROM THE NBM GIVEN ITS
PERSISTENT WARM BIAS. WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS OVERTOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AROUND PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
GIVEN THIS, WE LOWERED NBM TEMPS UP TO 3-5 DEGREES TO BE CLOSER TO
MOS GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE GET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITHOUT
NEEDING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST, THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
OUR REGION AGAIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW
90S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND I-84 CORRIDOR.
WHILE WPC DID LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY TOO HIGH (BY AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES), AND REPRESENTS A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST, AND POSSIBLY MORE IF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
SLOWER TO DEPART THURSDAY AND THERE ARE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS
AROUND. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN FORECAST. THAT SAID, IT IT WILL BE QUITE
HUMID/MUGGY, SO SOME HEAT ADVISORIES COULD STILL BE NEEDED
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY, ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AS OF 1:25 AM EDT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALB/GFL/POU THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. AT PSF, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING
BEFORE CIGS RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. GFL/ALB/PSF WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR TO LOW-
END VFR CIGS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS TO BREAK UP
AS THEY HEAD TOWARDS POU, SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH THERE. SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ONCE SHOWERS END, BUT
ANY LINGERING CLODS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN, WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT, STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF. WINDS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
ARRIVE, THEN ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE N/NE AT AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET WITH WINDS WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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