785
FXUS61 KALY 071846
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE VALLEYS
AREAS TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BELOW THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED (2-4 DEGREES) MON-WED BASED
ON COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS DUE TO WARM NBM VALUES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAX TEMPS LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TONIGHT.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR TEMPS TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F-104F).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AREA. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS BETWEEN 2-4 PM...AND
THEN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED MOVING FURTHER SOUTHWARD IN THE
LATE PM TOWARDS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHER TACONICS/NW CT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH 200-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ALOFT WITH THE COLD POOL TO THE UPPER LOW.
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE 10-20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-35 MPH DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING AND THE
HORIZONTAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING IN.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED, AS THE SFC ANTICYLONE SETTLES IN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND NORTHERN NY. LOWS WERE LOWERED BELOW THE NBM VALUES CLOSER
TO THE METMOS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH POCKETS OF UPPER
30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST IS
LIKELY NEAR LAKE GEORGE VICINITY AND THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
VALLEYS. THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD FAIR, DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MONDAY. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ONE MORE COOL NIGHT OCCURS MON NIGHT WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THE RETURN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DRY DAY BUT A BIT WARMER, AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE VERY WARM
NBM VALUES (PERSISTENT HIGH END BIAS) WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HEAT INDICES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE MID
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED, AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE AND WARM FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY 2-4 DEGREES
FOR WED WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE VALLEYS AND 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. RIGHT NOW, HEAT INDICES PEAK
IN THE LOWER 90S AND FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST THU INTO THE WEEKEND ON HOW HOT
AND HUMID THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES. LOW TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER/HOTTER THAN THE EC
ENSEMBLE/MEX GUIDANCE AND WPC SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPS IN THE
MAJOR VALLEYS/FORECAST AREA THU AND FRI. HOWEVER, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE HIT IN PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS (THU AND FRI) WITH DEWPOINTS IN
MID 60S TO AROUND 70F AND PRESENT FORECAST TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S (ISOLATED MID 90S TOWARD I-84). HEAT IMPACTS
WOULD OCCUR WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100F. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON THE WEEKEND BRINGS A MORE ROBUST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS
RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE VERY WARM NBM VALUES VERIFY
THEN ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
HAVE MAX TEMP BIAS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW HOT WE GET, SO
ADDITIONAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH KGFL WILL BRIEFLY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE RAIN AND MIST OVER THE NEXT HALF AN
HOUR OR SO. THE SAME BATCH OF SHOWERS CAUSING LESS THAN IDEAL
FLYING CONDITIONS AT KGFL WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND IMPACT
KALB AND KPSF WITHIN THE HOUR, BUT ONLY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE THIS BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ENDS, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING AT
KGFL AND KALB LATER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BY 00Z THIS
EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REINFORCED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KGFL DUE TO MIST/FOG.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. LATEST OBS CURRENTLY SHOW SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF ABOUT 10 TO NEARLY 15 KT WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH UNTIL GUSTS ARE LOST AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS FALL UNDER 10 KT. TOMORROW MORNING, A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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