493
FXUS61 KALY 081054
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAINLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE
CONTINUED TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE NBM EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES, THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F) WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:30 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1020 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NY FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE SOME MORE CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, NORTHERN AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.
LOWS WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. SOME UPPER 30S
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE ADKS. PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE
RAIN YESTERDAY.
FOG DISSIPATES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A VERY PLEASANT EARLY
SUMMER DAY EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH THE SFC HIGH REMAINING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH OUR AREA IN A REGION OF FAVORED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE TODAY. WHILE THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARDS
TONIGHT, IT SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP AFTER SUNSET. WE UNDERCUT NBM LOWS
BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF TO THE S/SE, SETTING UP LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALSO SHIFTING
OVERHEAD. MORNING SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW MORE AFTERNOON
CLOUDS. GIVEN PERSISTENT NBM WARM BIAS, WE WENT COOLER THAN THE
NBM IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. IT WILL BE QUITE
WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS. DEW
POINTS WILL "ONLY" RISE INTO THE 50S SO WHILE IT WILL BE MORE
HUMID, HEAT INDICES SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. RISING DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
(50S AND 60S) FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVERTOP THE UPPER RIDGE.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHILE A GULF MOISTURE
CONNECTION WILL ALLOW PWATS TO SURGE AS HIGH AS AROUND 2" (WHICH
WOULD BE AROUND +3 STD DEV PER THE NAEFS). THEREFORE, EXPECTING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE DETAILS, THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF SHEAR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY
HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT, SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NBM INTO THE 70S (TERRAIN) TO MID 80S
(VALLEYS). HEAT INDICES SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR N/NE BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME VALLEY
AREAS MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES WITH EXPECTED HEAT INDICES 95-100F.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW HOT EACH DAY WILL GET,
HOWEVER, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THAT SAID, OUR LATEST DETERMINISTIC FORECAST WITH WFO AND
COLLABORATED WPC EDITS NOW LOOKS MUCH MORE REALISTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, SHOWING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO VS THE
HIGHER-END OUTCOME THAT WAS SHOWN WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
ITERATIONS.
AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, FORCING LOOKS A LITTLE MORE NEBULOUS
THURSDAY AS SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD WHILE OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE ANOTHER
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING NEARBY WITH MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FRIDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO KICK THE RIDGE AXIS OFF
TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
LEADING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. WE ARE THEREFORE EXPECTING TO SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT IF IT ARRIVES DURING
PEAK HEATING THEN SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND MORE SHEAR IN PLACE. FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN WARM (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FOG BANK RIGHT
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KALB AND KGFL TAF SITES. KGFL HAS
SEEN OCCASIONAL FOG AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
KALB HAS NOT HAD FOG YET, BUT A WESTWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WINDS TODAY
WILL INITIALLY BE VARIABLE AROUND 3-6 KT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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