734
FXUS61 KALY 081829
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
229 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED TONIGHT FROM THE NBM 2 TO 5 DEGREES DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WAS ADDED TO THE VALLEYS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED LOWERED TUE TO THU
FROM THE NBM TO CORRECT FOR THE MAX TEMP WARM BIAS. THE TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS SLOWED DOWN WED WITH
GREATER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A COOL START, TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TEMPS, THE BEST CHANCE TO HIT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (95-104F) WILL BE THU AND FRI FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND/OR MOHAWK VALLEY.
3)SOME STRONGER T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU PM AND/OR FRI WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BEAUTIFUL EARLY JUNE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED BY 2 TO 5
DEGREES FROM THE NBM AND WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MAVMOS/CONSALL
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW COOLER
READINGS MAY OCCUR IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK. SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
MIST/FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR IN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND THE
CT RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST VT. THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION ON TUE. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE RETURN MILDER FLOW
AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS, AND MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS WERE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE NBM VALUES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WARM BIAS. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER TUE WITH A FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WE SLOWED THE POPS DOWN SOME IN
THE MORNING AND INCREASED TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL VALUES
(55-80%) BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BASED ON COLLAB
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. THE PWATS RISE 1-2+ STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS AND COULD REACH THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE.
THE 3-KM NAM AND SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK WEAK. WE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SLIGHT
OR LOW CHANCE RANGE. THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
TOO. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK
FOR WED. THEY MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX
TEMPS WILL LOWER SOME FROM THE NBM, BUT WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S (UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S OVER
THE MTNS). HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THU AND FRI WITH THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE LATEST NAEFS INDICATE H850 TEMPS RISING 1 TO
2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE VERY WARM NBM
VALUES. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS THU/FRI
WHICH WOULD YIELD SOME UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS,
AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND MTNS. SFC
DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
FRI. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THU IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY MORE EXTENSIVE NORTH THROUGH THE CAPITAL
REGION AND THE REST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY ON FRI. HEAT INDICES IN THE
95-104F RANGE MAY CAUSE HEAT RELATED IMPACTS, AS PEOPLE SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE LONG PERIODS OF TIME. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND
STAY COOL. THE MUGGY TEMPS MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL NEED POTENTIALLY HEAT ADVISORIES
INTO THE WEEKEND (WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT IN SOME OF THE VALLEY
AREAS), THOUGH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCLEAR
ON THU. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THE DEEP SHEAR AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK VERY
STRONG. SPC MENTIONED ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE DAY 4-7 OUTLOOK. A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY, LAKE BREEZE OR WEAK SFC TROUGH
COULD FOCUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO ON THU FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI, A PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL POTENTIALLY FOCUS SOME STRONG T-STORMS, IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SETS UP. THE DEEPER SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F AND
PWATS AT LEAST 1 TO 2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME FRAME THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WOULD PLAY A ROLE IF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
T-STORMS DEVELOP. THAT REMAINS VARIABLE THE MEDIUM RANGE AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO LOOK MORE FRI BASED ON THE LATEST
WPC/NBM GUIDANCE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS /T-STORMS IS
POSSIBLE SAT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR SUN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS OR CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS TOMORROW AT MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
START OFF THIS PERIOD BEFORE CALMING AROUND 23Z-00Z. WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AROUND
12Z-13Z TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS
AT KPOU THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23
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