817
FXUS61 KALY 090625
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AGAIN DUE TO A WARM BIAS COMPARED TO OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INTRODUCED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
LOWERED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE
TO LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACT HEAT INDICES, THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (95-104F) WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND/OR MOHAWK VALLEYS.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING +1
TO +2 STDEV, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE, THEY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY UNDER THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS, WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FILTERING THE SUN.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WED, WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS ON THU, AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN VALLEYS WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100F IN
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/S. TACONICS. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, MOHAWK VALLEY, S. TACONICS
AND EVEN PARTS OF S. BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY TODAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. SBCAPE FROM HREF MAINLY IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES LOOK FAIRLY WEAK ~20 KT, SO THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.
SOME DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN ANY CONVECTION WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +3 STDEV.
ON THU, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, MORE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. NAM IS A MAX OUTLIER DUE TO TD
LIKELY TOO HIGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ARE LACKING THOUGH DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THERE IS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE, SO IF STORMS CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO AN
EML MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT THE TIMING LOOKS MORE
DELAYED COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS. WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY PEAKING,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE SCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG
AGAIN. WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK, BUT STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE HIGH-PWAT ENVIRONMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND,
THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING SAT.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE BELOW 90F.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK SIMILAR ON SUN, SO IT WILL
BE WARM AGAIN BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY HOT/HUMID. COOLING TRENDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT
ALB/POU/PSF AS OF 1:05 AM EDT, BUT FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY FORMED
AT GFL WITH IFR VSBYS. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE AT GFL THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH IFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOME
PATCHY MIST AT PSF IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF, BUT IF FOG FORMS THEN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ANY FOG QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SW THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT AT ALB WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AT 5-10
KT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
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