267
FXUS61 KALY 090956
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
556 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2 TO MENTION ISSUANCES OF A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AND AN EQUIVALENT SLIGHT RISK FRIDAY
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AGAIN DUE TO A WARM BIAS COMPARED TO OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INTRODUCED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
LOWERED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE
TO LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT HEAT INDICES, THE BEST CHANCE TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95-104F) WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON AND/OR MOHAWK VALLEYS.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING +1
TO +2 STDEV, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE, THEY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY UNDER THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS, WITH
JUST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FILTERING THE SUN.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WED, WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS ON THU, AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN VALLEYS WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100F IN
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/S. TACONICS. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE
PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, MOHAWK VALLEY, S. TACONICS
AND EVEN PARTS OF S. BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY TODAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
T-STORMS WILL INCREASE ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. SBCAPE FROM HREF MAINLY IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES LOOK FAIRLY WEAK ~20 KT, SO THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.
SOME DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN ANY CONVECTION WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +3 STDEV.
ON THU, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, MORE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. NAM IS A MAX OUTLIER DUE TO TD
LIKELY TOO HIGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ARE LACKING THOUGH DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THERE IS A
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE, SO IF STORMS CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO AN
EML MOVING OVERHEAD. SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS AS WEDNESDAY.
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, BUT THE TIMING LOOKS MORE
DELAYED COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECASTS. WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY PEAKING,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE SCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG
AGAIN. WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK, BUT STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE HIGH-PWAT ENVIRONMENT. SPC HAS ISSUED A
DAY 4 EQUIVALENT SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR EASTERN NY WITH
A 15-29% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND,
THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING SAT.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE BELOW 90F.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK SIMILAR ON SUN, SO IT WILL
BE WARM AGAIN BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY HOT/HUMID. COOLING TRENDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALB/POU/PSF
AS OF 5:55 AM EDT, BUT GFL CONTINUES TO SEE SOME INTERMITTENT IFR
VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG/MIST. THIS FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THEN, ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. JUST A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND
5000 FT DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 09-10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO START THE DAY, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT FROM THE S/SW BY
MID-MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AT GFL/POU/PSF. BUT REMAIN AT 5-10
KT FROM THE S/SE AT ALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page