335
FXUS61 KALY 101046
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THU ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH, S. TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD CT. ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF THE
REGION (EXCLUDING SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS). THERE IS NOW A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY FROM
AROUND I-90 SOUTH, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASED RISK IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ON
THURSDAY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH, AND MOST OF THE
REGION (EXCLUDING SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS) ON FRIDAY.
2) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS WILL BE ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI (850
MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV). HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL INCREASE TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODESTLY WARM INTO
THE MID 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO HEAT INDICES WILL
BE < 90F.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS ON THU, WITH SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES IN THE 95-98F RANGE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALB SOUTH,
THE S. TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD CT. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRI, ACROSS A
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF THE REGION (EXCEPT FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS, NE CATSKILLS, AND HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF ALBANY).
FRI WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-102F RANGE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO SOME OTHER
AREAS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES PRIOR TO FRI. SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN ON SAT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. THE LATEST CAMS DEPICT THIS
SCENARIO. SBCAPE FROM HREF REACHES 500-1500 J/KG, WITH THE
GREATEST VALUES WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DOES INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
TOWARDS EVENING. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOW
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS. AS PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASE TO +2 TO +3
STDEV, SLOW-MOVING DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON THU, GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOCUSING A
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH HREF INDICATING SBCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR ~25-30 KT TO
ORGANIZE STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER(SPC)
TO INCREASE TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTH, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
NORTH OF I-90 WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING IS LESS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND
PEAKING ON FRI, EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVES IN.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT T-STORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE EVENING. THIS TIME RANGE IS
STILL OUTSIDE THE CAMS WINDOW, SO WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA FOR
TIMING, MODE AND MAGNITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW, SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER
T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE STRONG, WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OF POTENTIALLY 50+ KT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOP AND TIMING OF FORCING LINES UP, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR. COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION AND LOWER AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. FAVORED FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THREATEN TO FORCE MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY
LOW PERTAINING TO THE TIMING, LOCATIONS, AND RESULTING
CONDITIONS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SO
MAINTAINED PROB30S THROUGHOUT THE TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS OF
GREATEST PROBABILITY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE
MAINTAINED WITHIN THESE PROB30S UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND
ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE PROVIDED WITH LATER UPDATES. HOWEVER,
AFTER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENDS LATE THIS EVENING, A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS LARGELY FALLING UNDER 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CROSSES A
TERMINAL, WINDS COULD GET GUSTY WITH 15KT SUSTAINED AND 25KT
GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ049-052-
053-059-060-064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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