727
FXUS61 KALY 110600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHT
RISK NOW LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREAS (ULSTER,
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES).
HAVE EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY INTO SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT FOR
FRIDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S
THERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES IN
VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
2) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS WELL.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION IS UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA.
850 HPA TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM, WITH EXPECTED VALUES IN
THE +16 TO +20 C RANGE. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 1-2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL BASED OFF THE LATEST NAEFS. THESE VALUES LOOK TO PEAK ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY. SOME PARTS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAY REACH THE LOWER 90S. ON FRIDAY, MOST AREAS
VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RISING OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH CURRENT VALUES ALREADY INTO THE 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
THURSDAY AND WIDESPREAD 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY FOR
VALLEY AREAS. EVEN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS, CENTRAL CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS,
NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. HEAT RISK VALUES ARE
WIDESPREAD IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY (LEVEL 2 OF 4), WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4). PEOPLE
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BY TAKING BREAKS IN THE SHADE, DRINKING
WATER AND SPENDING TIME IN AIR CONDITIONING. THERE SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD EASE THE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THERE IS A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND CENTRAL NY AND THIS WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATER
TODAY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY LOW TODAY DUE TO MAIN
HEIGHT FALLS AND BEST FORCING STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. AS A
RESULT, WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS
IT COLLAPSES, BUT THIS LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED AND MOST STORMS
WON'T BE SEVERE TODAY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK SCRAPPING INTO
WESTERN AREAS, BUT THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS OFF TO THE WEST. STORMS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
DUE TO MORE HEATING AND LESS CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED HIGH
DEWPOINTS. STILL, THE BEST FORCING IS STILL FAIRLY FAR TO THE
WEST. COVERAGE OFF STORMS ACTUALLY LOOKS A LITTLE LESS THAN
TODAY, BUT STORMS COULD HAVE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO
HIGH DCAPE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BASED OFF THE CAMS,
THE BEST STORMS MAY BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SO THIS
MAKES SENSE.
ON FRIDAY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING, AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS, WITH A WIDESPREAD
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE AREA AND THERE SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAY BE AROUND 30 KTS.
FOR ALL THREE DAYS, ANY STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS HIGH PWATS AND SLOWER STORM MOTION MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY, BUT HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES IF RAINFALL OCCURS IN A VULNERABLE LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION LATER ON SUNDAY.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED JUST ALONG OR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME MORE STRONGER STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL
TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS DAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PSF WHICH IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO MIST, AS AN UPPER- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DEPART TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH ITS RESULTING
CONVECTION. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STRATUS MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
CLOUD DECK WHICH MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO PSF
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, THOUGH GFL DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG JUST BEFORE AND AROUND
DAYBREAK IF CLOUDS SCOUR OUT IN TIME.
THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH, LIKE YESTERDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LARGELY
LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES AT POU AND KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS. PROB30 GROUPS WERE
ADDED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF ANY
CONVECTION REACHING GFL AND ALB IS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON SO
IT MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. AND EVEN THEN,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN GFL AND ALB GETTING ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL, SO THEIR PROB30 MAINTAINED MVFR
SHOWERS. ONCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENDS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY MAKE THINGS BREEZY TO GUSTY BRIEFLY. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE AT POU WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT WITH 30 KT GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ001-013.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ015.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12
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