814
FXUS61 KALY 110654
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN SARATOGA
COUNTY, EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN SE VT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY IN SW MA. HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SW VT. LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TO MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED RISK IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES IN
VALLEY AREAS TODAY AND MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
2) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FIRST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT BEGINS TODAY, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
SE VT FROM 12-8 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE 95-100F RANGE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +1 TO
+3 STDEV FROM NAEFS) WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST WELL EAST OF THE AREA INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TIMING IN LATEST
GUIDANCE/CAMS LOOKS MORE DELAYED AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE,
OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AREA OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND FORCING CONTINUES TO FOCUS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN
EFFECT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) UP TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
HREF SHOWING SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST
AIR MASS, ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK ~20 KT.
STILL, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWATS, WET MICROBURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS. FORTUNATELY, GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE REMNANT EML THAT WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION FRI MORNING, THERE WILL BE RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH
LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT, SO DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY LOOKS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, SBCAPE VALUES COULD REACH
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR OUR REGION. WITH
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT, MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES COULD PRODUCE
WET MICROBURSTS. COVERAGE LOOKS GREATER THAN THURSDAY, WITH TIMING
MOSTLY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO 6.5-7.0 DEGC/KM, SO
SOME OF THE TALLER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER(SPC).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IF THE FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OF POTENTIALLY
40-50+ KT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S, STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPGRADES FROM SPC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FIRST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT BEGINS TODAY, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND SE VT FROM 12-8 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REACH THE 95-100F RANGE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS (850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF
+1 TO +3 STDEV FROM NAEFS) WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST WELL EAST OF THE AREA INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TIMING
IN LATEST GUIDANCE/CAMS LOOKS MORE DELAYED AND SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE, OCCURRING MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AREA OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING CONTINUES TO FOCUS WELL SOUTH
OF ALBANY WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) UP TO THE
I-90 CORRIDOR. HREF SHOWING SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE
INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS, ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK ~20 KT. STILL, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
HIGH PWATS, WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
ANY STORMS. FORTUNATELY, GUIDANCE INDICATING THE REMNANT EML
THAT WILL BE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WELL EAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION FRI MORNING, THERE WILL BE
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT, SO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE,
SBCAPE VALUES COULD REACH THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE WHICH IS
QUITE HIGH FOR OUR REGION. WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT,
MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. COVERAGE
LOOKS GREATER THAN THURSDAY, WITH TIMING MOSTLY LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES FORECAST TO STEEPEN TO 6.5-7.0 DEGC/KM, SO SOME OF THE
TALLER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER(SPC).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IF THE FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS,
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR OF POTENTIALLY 40-50+ KT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S, STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPGRADES FROM SPC.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PSF WHICH IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO MIST, AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DEPART TO OUR EAST ALONG WITH ITS
RESULTING CONVECTION. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME PATCHY LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STRATUS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PSF EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, THOUGH GFL DOES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG JUST BEFORE AND
AROUND DAYBREAK IF CLOUDS SCOUR OUT IN TIME.
THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED THOUGH, LIKE YESTERDAY, CONFIDENCE IS LARGELY
LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIES AT POU AND KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS. PROB30 GROUPS WERE
ADDED ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF ANY
CONVECTION REACHING GFL AND ALB IS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON SO
IT MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. AND EVEN THEN,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN GFL AND ALB GETTING ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL, SO THEIR PROB30 MAINTAINED MVFR
SHOWERS. ONCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENDS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY MAKE THINGS BREEZY TO GUSTY BRIEFLY. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE AT POU WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT WITH 30 KT GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ001-013.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ015.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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