469
FXUS61 KALY 120309
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1109 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS EVENING HAS ENDED. THEREFORE,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELED. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
BUT NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEY AREAS.
2) THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
3) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +17 AND +20C WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-80S TO MID-90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-90S TO LOWER 100S, FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK FOR AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK IS IN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR CATEGORIES THROUGH FRIDAY. A PASSING COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY WILL BRING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE
ERIE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REACH WESTERN AREAS IS LIKELY NOT UNTIL
7-8PM OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LATER, SO THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS OUR AREA, BUT STILL BRING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO AREAS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PRIOR TO
THAT, WHILE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT, WEAK SHEAR (ABOUT
20 KT OR LESS) AND LACK OF FORCING MAY RESULT IN RATHER
ISOLATED COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE LATEST CAMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS CAN REACH SEVERE
LIMITS IS UNCERTAIN, BUT A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORM
THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
AFTER A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 25-30 KT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN BUT LIKELY
GREATER THAN TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH SOME OF THE TALLER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WE REMAIN
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOLLOWING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. IF THE FRONT APPROACHES DURING
THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STRONG
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR OF POTENTIALLY 40-50+ KT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S, STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD OCCUR. SPC HAS
ISSUED AN EQUIVALENT SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
PLEASANT WEATHER (COOLER CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY) RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SATURDAY...CURRENT KENX RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HIGH
REFLECTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KGFL. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KPOU AND KPSF. KALB SHOULD REMAIN
VFR WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS OCCURRING HOWEVER BURSTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AT KPOU AND KPSF COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR UNTIL ABOUT 03Z (KPOU)
AND 06Z (KPSF). A BRIEF BREAK OF VFR IS EXPECTED BEFORE FOG/MIST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPOU, KGFL, AND KPSF IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE. ALL TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING REMAIN BREEZY WITH SPEEDS
5-10 KT. WINDS THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED 15-20 KT. MAINLY CALM OVERNIGHT WINDS PICK BACK UP BY
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT KGFL WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
THURSDAY JUNE 11:
ALBANY: 94(1947)
GLENS FALLS: 94(1894)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95(1973)
FRIDAY JUNE 12:
ALBANY: 95(2017)
GLENS FALLS: 92(2017)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95(1933)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...33/07/05
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...07
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