212
FXUS61 KALY 120928
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN IN GREATER MAGNITUDE AND ON
A MORE WIDESPREAD SCALE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, INCREASING THE
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
2) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
3) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE, ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ONCE AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH TO A
GREATER SPATIAL EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE THAN YESTERDAY. A NARROW,
LOCALIZED RIDGE PRECEDING AN INCOMING COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER AN INCREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT THAT'S
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW 850MB TEMPERATURES TO SURGE TO +17C TO +19C
(2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL). THIS, PAIRED WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE AS WELL AS MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO HEATING WITHIN
VALLEY AREAS THROUGH DOWNSLOPING OF WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS REACHING THE 80S TO 90S
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES, PAIRED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM THIS EVENING. CAUTION IS
ADVISED TO ALL POPULATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT- RELATED ILLNESS AND WORK OUTDOORS FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND
LIMIT THE DURATION OF EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT BY PLANNING FREQUENT
BREAKS WITHIN A COOLED LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATEST RGB AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. DIRECTLY UPSTREAM, A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
STRADDLING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER LAKE HURON EXTENDING
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. IT'S THESE FEATURES
THAT WILL ULTIMATELY SERVE AS THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THE
ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MAGNITUDE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL EASILY PROVIDE A REQUISITE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PROMOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT, MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RISE TO ABOUT
500-1500 J/KG, PARTICULARLY WITHIN VALLEY AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE GREATEST. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 15-30KT AND A PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SUGGEST A DISCRETE STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE STRENGTH
THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, DRIVING THE
ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AS
DIFFLUENT FLOW INCREASES ALOFT WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLACE US IN AN AREA
OF FAIRLY STRONG PVA AND SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT FALLS WHICH WILL
ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT FURTHER. INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH MARGINALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL
DRIVE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS OUR PRIMARY HAZARD FOR
THE DAY. TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO THIS THOUGHT, LATEST HIRES
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DECAYING CONVECTION TO RACE INTO
OUR CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT
SLIGHTLY. PREVIOUSLY, THE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING MARGINALLY
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WERE MAXIMIZED AROUND
5.5-6C/KM. HOWEVER, 06Z GUIDANCE IS NOW HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA OF
STEEPER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES THAT REACH 6.5C/KM WHICH SUGGESTS
ENTRAINMENT EFFECTS OF THIS DRIER, COOLER REMNANT FLOW. STEEPER
LAPSE RATES RESULTING FROM THIS OUTFLOW COULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE
DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL THROUGH STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING
WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE SECONDARY HAZARD POTENTIAL OF HAIL.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEPT OUR ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY,
SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.
WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIES
WITHIN AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY. HERE, A 30-44% PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXISTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT LOCATION.
ELSEWHERE, A 15-29% PROBABILITY STANDS. AND WHILE THE EXACT
TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THE WINDOW
OF TIME FOR THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SPANS ABOUT 2
PM THROUGH 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ONE DAY OF RESPITE FROM THE INTENSE HEAT/HUMIDITY AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL COMES SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCES DRY
CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SPAN THE 70S TO
UPPER 80S. WHILE THOSE VALUES MAY NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH OF A
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT, THEY WILL CERTAINLY NOT FEEL ANY WORSE
GIVEN DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S. SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY SIMILAR, THOUGH A FEW DEGREES WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S. HOWEVER, SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT, DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF AN IMPENDING COLD
FRONT, HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT
CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AND
BEGIN MESSAGING ANY HAZARDS ACCORDINGLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOIST/HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE FROM KALB TO
KPSF AND KPOU, WHICH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WILL
LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING AT KGFL
THOUGH, SO THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST OCCASIONAL
FOG AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THERE FROM AROUND 07Z-11Z. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH BREAKS TOWARDS 08Z OR 09Z FOR SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT
KPSF, SO WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR/LIFR THERE FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH MVFR AT KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD END BY 11Z. ADDITIONAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE AT VFR LEVELS. SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. WILL
MENTION PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY,
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT, BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-11 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES(YEAR SET):
THURSDAY JUNE 11:
ALBANY: 94(1947)
GLENS FALLS: 94(1894)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95(1973)
FRIDAY JUNE 12:
ALBANY: 95(2017)
GLENS FALLS: 92(2017)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95(1933)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...07
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