567
FXUS61 KALY 130004
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY, SOUTHERN VERMONT, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS,
AND SOUTHERN TACONICS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING, THUS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CANCEL FOR
GREENE, COLUMBIA, ULSTER, DUTCHESS, BERKSHIRE, AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
AS THE TWO WEATHER IMPACTS ABOVE HAVE ENDED, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
KEY MESSAGES BELOW TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASE FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO
ARRIVE MORE AT NIGHT WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, WE SHOULD REMAIN SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MOST
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
COULD OCCUR AT KGFL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN
6Z AND 10Z THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED WITH IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33/05
AVIATION...05
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