032
FXUS61 KALY 130518
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY, SOUTHERN VERMONT, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS,
AND SOUTHERN TACONICS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING, THUS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CANCEL FOR
GREENE, COLUMBIA, ULSTER, DUTCHESS, BERKSHIRE, AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES.
AS THE TWO WEATHER IMPACTS ABOVE HAVE ENDED, HAVE ADJUSTED THE
KEY MESSAGES BELOW TO HIGHLIGHT THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASE FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO
ARRIVE MORE AT NIGHT WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, WE SHOULD REMAIN SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MOST
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KGFL AND PSF
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 UTC/13 RESULTING IN MVFR VIS WHICH CONTINUES TO
BE ADDRESSED IN A TEMPO GROUP. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER OVERNIGHT INDICATING LOWERING MOISTURE. WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING ELEVATED, THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAY REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION OR LIMIT ANY FOG TO MVFR VIS.
THUS, WE REMOVED THE IFR VIS POTENTIAL FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT GFL. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY
AROUND 15 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33/05
AVIATION...31
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