629
FXUS61 KALY 132355
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST UPDATED DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREA
EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE CWA. INCREASED WINDS/WIND
GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES, MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A WARM BUT SUNNY REMAINDER OF TODAY, AND A MAINLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT, VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON, IF NOT LOCALLY
LOWER. HEAT INDICES WILL THEREFORE REMAIN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 IN VALLEY AREAS AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA, A COUPLE OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL TRACK TOWARD/THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIAL IMPULSE LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES ~800-1200
J/KG WITH AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT
GUSTY/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND,
ESPECIALLY FOR VALLEY AREAS WHERE DCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
MAIN FORCING FROM SECOND APPROACHING IMPULSE AND ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING, MAINLY AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
STILL REMAIN STEEP INITIALLY IN ANY AREAS DEVOID OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES (30-40+ KT) AMID STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION FORMS INTO
LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AFTER SUNSET AMID PWAT'S BRIEFLY INCREASING TO
1.50-1.75", SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SUNDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER/LESS
HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S IN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND 60S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE 40S, MAKING FOR AN UNUSUALLY COOL JUNE DAY ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. TEMPS WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK, WITH
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. UNUSUALLY
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY WITH
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AMID THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS TO PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME 00Z/13 MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS SUGGEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION, AND SPC
HAS INCLUDED AREAS FROM NEAR I-90 AND POINTS SOUTHWARD WITHIN A
15% (EQUIVALENT FOR "SLIGHT RISK") FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
DAY 6 (THURSDAY). MAIN QUESTION WILL BE TIMING, AS A QUICKER
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY WOULD MITIGATE INSTABILITY
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW UNTIL 21Z/SUN FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS INCREASING TOWARD
TOWARDS SUNRISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO 20Z/SUN, AS A COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
KALB-KPSF NORTH/NORTHEAST TO KGFL BETWEEN 21Z/SUN AND 00Z/MON.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z/MON AND
LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADJUST TIMING. IN ANY THUNDERSTORM,
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITH VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
WINDS OR GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KT OR GREATER.
THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS TO CALM EARLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...15
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