637
FXUS61 KALY 140802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS ITERATION AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD POSE MINOR
SOCIETAL IMPACTS.
2) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
3) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER,
THURSDAY HOLDS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE JAMES BAY, IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE CYCLONE JUST TO ITS NORTH AND EAST
WITH AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, A SURFACE WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALREADY DEVELOPED IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN
ALONG ITS SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY, SINKING FARTHER INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT ENTERS THE MID-
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS ITS PARENT LOW RETROGRADES NORTH AND WESTWARD. THE
LOWS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT GAINS
EASTWARD MOMENTUM, TRIGGERED BY THE DEEPENING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT, SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS OUR
REGION. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, LASTING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT
DEPARTS OUR REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SEVERE THREAT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST CONCERN
IS THE OVERALL LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. WARM CONDITIONS
AMID A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
BREAKS OF SUN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION
OF OUR PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. LIKEWISE, DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE 50S AND 60S
WHICH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S, WILL ALSO LIMIT
BUOYANCY.
THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ITSELF. OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS OR SO, THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONT WON'T ACTUALLY BEGIN ITS PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 19-22Z. BY THE TIME IT EXTENDS ACROSS A
LARGER PORTION OF OUR CWA, WE WILL BE PAST PEAK HEATING AND WILL
BE BEGINNING TO LOSE DAYLIGHT. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE USE OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WHICH, AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, MAY ALREADY BE LIMITED. THERE MAY
BE AN OPPORTUNITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GET A STORM OR TWO, AS
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK, PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO, BUT AN EXCESS OF LOW- AND EVEN MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
MAY LIMIT EVEN RESULTING SHOWERS. THE LATEST CAMS SEEM TO FAVOR
THAT THOUGHT, AS THEY ARE NOT RESOLVING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT, IF THERE WERE TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO
GENERATE A STORM, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HERE, SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
AN EML WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. BUT ONCE AGAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE GENERALLY <500 J/KG) COMBINED WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF SHOWERS DIRECTLY RESULTING FROM THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL STRONG FORCING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW RAIN
SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD, BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY IN NATURE AS
PWATS SURGE TO 1.2" TO 1.5". THAT SAID, THERE IS NOT A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING DUE TO THE FAST NATURE OF THE FRONT AND
ITS RESULTING SHOWERS, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME NUISANCE
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINALLY STEEP
(5.5-6.5 C/KM) AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INCREASES. IN FACT,
THIS LOOKS TO BECOME A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR (<500 J/KM MLCAPE AND
AT LEAST 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR) ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT THERE MAY
ACTUALLY BE SOME LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SUGGEST SOME LINEAR BANDING
SEGMENTS WHICH COULD ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTY
WINDS. NOW, WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE TONIGHT, STEEP LAPSE RATES,
HIGH PWATS ERRING TO PRECIPITATION LOADING, INVERTED-V PROFILES,
INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT, AND FAST STORM MOTION PROVIDE
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD POSE SOME NUISANCE IMPACTS SUCH
AS ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED TREES/WIRES OR BLOWN
ABOUT OUTDOOR FURNITURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING DOWN. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WHILE LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT FALL INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. VALUES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S BEFORE LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET UP FOR THE
MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK, FORCING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN PARTICULAR, WE ARE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THURSDAY, WHICH HOLDS THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
AGREEMENT IN A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BENEATH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
HIGH LEVELS OF BULK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDING THE
LOW, CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 20Z/SUN
FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z/SUN AND 03Z/MON WHERE WE
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE (HIGHEST CHANCE AT POU, ALB
AND PSF) PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. THEN, A MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z/MON CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
(ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN) WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KT OR GREATER AS THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS
ARRIVES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT, STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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