502
FXUS61 KALY 142307
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
707 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS GIVEN
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY POPS ACCORDING TO LATEST NBM/CAMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND/JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED WITH URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
2) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.
3) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR MANY AREAS THUS FAR,
LIMITING OVERALL HEATING/DEEPER MIXING. WE DO EXPECT SOME MORE
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-90 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
ACCELERATE; HOWEVER GIVEN A LATER START THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED, HAVE LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS BY 3-5
DEGREES. STILL COULD APPROACH 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION, WITH MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E/NE, REACHING AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (3-5 PM). AS
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE, WITH MU CAPES REACHING 500-1000 J/KG PER HREFS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG, GENERALLY 30-40 KT. ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN HAIL, OTHERWISE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER, FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WHERE SHEAR WILL BE
GREATER INCLUDING LOW LEVEL SHEAR, A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A
TORNADO EXISTS.
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET AS MAIN FORCING INCREASES
WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
WEST. SLIGHT BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE MAY PROMOTE TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS THIS
EVENING, AND AS PWAT'S REACH 1.50-1.75", LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR,
SOME FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST HREFS SUGGEST 50-70% PROBS OF >1" RAIN IN 3 HOURS (8-11
PM) ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, NE
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARRIVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH 70-75 WITHIN MANY VALLEY AREAS MONDAY WITH
ONLY 60S FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FOR
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S/LOWER-MID 50S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL
ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY ON MONDAY, WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. UNUSUALLY
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, THEN AGAIN THURSDAY WITH
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AMID THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS TO PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME 00Z/14 MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS STILL
SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH CURRENT SPC DAY 5 OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE 15% (SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS) AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE TIMING, AS A QUICKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY WOULD MITIGATE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NY. IN ADDITION, MULTIPLE MODELS
SUGGEST OUR REGION WITH BE LOCATED WITHIN THE UNFAVORABLE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET CORE, WHICH MAY TEND TO FAVOR
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL CAPPING ACROSS OUR REGION DURING
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUESDAY, COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET FROM NW
TO SE. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
BEST CHANCES JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT, GENERALLY
OCCURRING BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/MON FROM NW TO SE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
LINGER A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BETWEEN
07Z-12Z/MON, WITH CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL
INCREASE TO 30-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/24
AVIATION...24
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