908
FXUS61 KALY 151012
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDED HOURLY POPS/TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
MONDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THURSDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE
BEEN ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE
EXCEEDED AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD BE FINISH CROSSING
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH WILL BE ALLOWING FOR THE
RAIN TO WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING CAN
ALREADY BE SEEN UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE WEST OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY START TO DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH NO PRECIP AND SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S IN VALLEY AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
BE MUCH LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS AS WELL, WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY AFTERNOON, THANKS TO A DRY WESTERLY
BREEZE, WHICH MAY GUST 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR TONIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT). SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. AS A RESULT, IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT
FOR MID JUNE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE, THE NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FOR JUNE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS LOW SUB-990 MB, WHICH
IS RATHER STRONG FOR MID JUNE. YESTERDAY'S 12Z NAEFS HAD THIS
LOW ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO IT WILL
BE AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
PASS BY. AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. NBM SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40 MPH, WITH 20-30% PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. EVEN SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CAN
HAVE IMPACTS IN THE WARM SEASON THANKS TO LEAVES ON THE TREES,
SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE
DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY MAY BE IN QUESTION. WHILE IT SHOULD BE WARM AND
MUGGY THANKS TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. NBM SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 800 J/JG,
WITH VALUES ABOVE 500 J/JG MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS PA AND NJ. SPC HAS BEEN OUTLOOKING
AREAS TO OUR SOUTH FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND SOME OF THE
AI/ML GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL, IT WILL BE CLOSE
AND WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM NEARBY, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS WELL. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXITING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
SOME LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
BEEN ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING, WITH BKN
CIGS AROUND 2-3 KFT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION,
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. AFTERWARD, IT SHOULD STAY
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 4-6
KFT FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THESE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE
FOR TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT, WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 5-10 KTS FOR ALL SITES. DURING
THE DAY TODAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10-12 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS, MAINLY AT KPSF AND KALB. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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