281
FXUS61 KALY 160602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS MORNING. FOR EXAMPLE, ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. ALSO, ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR TIMING IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
FINALLY, LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITHIN THE CAPITAL
REGION. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, TEMPS AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES DON'T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED COMFORTABLE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING TOWARDS
NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA, BUT SKIES SHOULD
STAY FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SHELTERED PARTS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT LOOKS RATHER BRIEF AND
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY
WITH MAINLY AREAS BEGINNING THE MORNING IN THE 40S.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL BE
A LITTLE MILDER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MID 70S IN MANY
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR MID
JUNE WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, SO IT WILL
BE RATHER DRY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO MONDAY
WITH JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IT WILL STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL AS THIS
MORNING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP IS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND STILL SOME
DRY AIR AROUND, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY. BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THIS
LOOK TO BE A SUB-990 MB LOW, WHICH IS VERY STRONG FOR MID JUNE
AND STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 2-4 STD BELOW NORMAL. WITH AN
EXPECTED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE HIGHER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED GUSTS OVER
30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. LATEST NBM STILL
SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL (20-40% PROBABILITY) FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH IN THE CAPITAL REGION, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS, THESE
WINDS COULD BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SOME TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES, AS
WARM SEASON GUSTS DON'T NEED TO BE HIGH AS THE COOL SEASON TO
CAUSE ISSUES THANKS TO THE LEAVES ON THE TREES.
WHILE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, IT'S STILL UNCLEAR
IF THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, WITH NBM SBCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG, WITH
HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL,
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE DUE TO THE STRONG
DYNAMICS, SO A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE IF
SOME LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CAN GET GOING. SPC HAS BEEN KEEPING
THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS WELL, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE MODEL TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP, SO
THIS COULD BE A FACTOR AS WELL.
TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY TO
POUGHKEEPSIE. WHILE THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST OF THE WEEK, IT'S
STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO BE AN ISSUE AND VALUES DON'T LOOK
QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE INDICATING, WHICH IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK AND WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR MOST SITES,
ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AT KGFL
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, IT WILL BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
AROUND 5-7 KFT AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
BECOME WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING VERY LIGHT OR CALM ONCE AGAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 6-9 KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS, NO RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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