701
FXUS61 KALY 170130
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE: AS OF 9:30 PM, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
ALREADY APPROACHING FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SEVERAL MORE
HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS BEFORE MORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND/PRIOR TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOWERED NBM DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH MOST OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE. ALSO INCREASED
WIND GUSTS THURSDAY, AS A STRONG CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED COMFORTABLE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON WED, AND
PERHAPS A FEW T-STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY FORECAST WITH SBCAPE
GENERALLY 500 J/KG OF LESS, SO THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IS
VERY LOW WED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT, AS
A POTENT SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING INTO SE ONTARIO. COMPLEX SETUP FOR
THU, AS THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS MUDDLED
DUE TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS THU MORNING. THIS IS WHEN
PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST TOO, AS DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE
THU AFTERNOON. ALSO, THERE IS A NOTABLE MID LEVEL CAP (~500 MB)
EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THU P.M. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE
STRONG FORCING FROM THE SUB-990MB CYCLONE AND VERY HIGH
MAGNITUDE OF 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF 50-70 KT, IT IS QUESTIONABLE
IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY TO BALANCE THE
STRONG SHEAR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM AROUND POUGHKEEPSIE SOUTH. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE OVERLAP BETWEEN
INSTABILITY/SHEAR IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE (MSLP
ANOMALIES OF -3 TO -4 STDEV) TRACKING NE THROUGH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THU, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY. V-COMPONENT(SOUTHERLY) WIND SPEED ANOMALIES OF +3
TO +4 STDEV ARE ALSO FORECAST FROM THE NAEFS. BLENDED IN 90TH
PERCENTILE NBM WINDS FOR THU, WHICH RESULTS IN PEAK GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH, BUT COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. THESE SPEEDS COULD RESULT IN SOME SPORADIC
DOWNED TREE/BRANCHES, ESPECIALLY WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR KGFL AND KPSF WHERE PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR VISIBILITIES FROM 17/7Z TO
17/10Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH 17Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 17Z AND 22Z, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MILES.
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME CONTINUE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS FORECAST TIME ON EXACT TIMING.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS
INCREASING BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FOR KPOU BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/07
AVIATION...05
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