863
FXUS61 KALY 171858
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
258 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
MOHAWK VALLEY, HELDERBERGS, LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION,
NORTHERN TACONICS, AND THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION IN EASTERN NY
AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTIES FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH TOMORROW
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS BELOW 46-57 MPH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BRING DOWN FULLY LEAFED TREE LIMBS/TREES
WITH THE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH SOME EXPANSION NEEDED LATER POTENTIALLY TO
SCHOHARIE AND BERKSHIRES COUNTIES. WE WENT ABOVE THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE WINDS/WIND GUSTS TO ACHIEVE GUSTS 35-50 MPH.
SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A 2% TO <5% PROBABILITY
CONTOUR FOR TORNADOES HAS BEEN ADDED TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST VT.
THE TIMING FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE 11 AM TO
6 PM THU ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, BUT STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED
TREES, LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, AND SOUTHERN
GREENS NORTHWARD 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THU.
3) THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
4) BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BEFORE RAINS RETURNS TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG,
AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE ANY SEVERE THREAT. A FEW
WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH AN ISOLATED STORM (WELL
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS). HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW COOLER READINGS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT, AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POWERFUL AND ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY 12Z/8AM THU,
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.
THE SFC CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY TO 980-985 HPA BY THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE MSLP
FALLS ARE 2 TO 4 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS
AND THE 850 HPA LOW-LEVEL JET RAPIDLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH, AND THEN SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 45-60
KT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE V-WIND ANOMALIES
/SOUTHERLIES/ ARE +3 TO +5 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE LATEST
NAEFS THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THU
MORNING/EARLY PM. DOWNSLOPING OFF THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, AND
FUNNELING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE NARROW NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY MAY PRODUCE SOME WIND ADVISORY GUSTS OR NEAR WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS CAUSING DOWNED TREE LIMBS, TREES AND POWER
LINES. THE GUSTS MAY BE CLOSER TO 40 MPH (BELOW WIND ADVISORY
GUST THRESHOLDS) BUT WITH FULLY LEAFED TREES AND A DEEP AND
ANOMALOUS LOW THESE SYNOPTIC LEVEL WINDS COULD CAUSE ISSUES. A
SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK, WHICH SHOULD LIMITED THE WIND GUSTS INITIALLY, AND
THIS IS WHY WE STARTED THE ADVISORY AT 12Z/8 AM AFTER EXTENSIVE
COLLABORATION WITH WFOS BUF/BTV/BGM/GYX. WE MAY NEED TO ADD IN A
FEW ZONES LATER (I.E. BERKSHIRES AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES.
THE 925 HPA WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE BY THE LATE MORNING
BASED ON SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES
PROBABILITIES OF 30-80% FOR >40 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN TACONICS, LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY, AS WELL GRAZING THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO SOME DOWNED TREES, LARGE LIMBS CAUSING
SOME POWER OUTAGES TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FULLY LEAVED
TREES. THE ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 8 PM THU.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE IN PLACE, AS THE FORECAST AREA GETS BRIEFLY IN A WARM
SECTOR. THE LATEST HREFS SHOW A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE
CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 500 HPA JET
STREAK OF 70-90+ KT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE ALOFT WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KT, BUT THE HREFS ONLY INDICATE
MEAN SBCAPES OF 250-500 J/KG OR LESS. SOME OF THE CAMS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE AND EVEN MLCAPE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN BE TALL ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OR A FEW LINEAR SEGMENTS
SEEMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT THU, IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS AND INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THE 0-1 KM/0-3 KM HELICITY
VALUES ARE ALSO IMPRESSIVE ON THE HREFS AND CAMS, AS THE SIG TOR
PARAMETER /STP/ ON THE HREF IS 1-2 WITH POCKETS TO 3 OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER. TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO PORTIONS OF
VT INTO NH. EVEN OUTSIDE THIS CONTOUR, A ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE THE STRONG SHEAR/HELICITY AND THE LOW LCL'S IN
THE MORNING/EARLY PM.
IN TERMS OF THE IMPACTS, DAMAGING WINDS BRINGING DOWN TREES, TREE
LIMBS, POWER LINES AND POWER POLES WOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
SUBSEQUENT POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR FROM THE WIND GUSTS >58 MPH. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST QUICKLY IN THE MID
TO LATE PM WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND DEEPENING LOW TO NORTH. BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
NEAR I-84. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A FEW COOLER
READINGS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
KEY MESSAGE 4... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND THE GULF OF
ST LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW, IT FAVORS SOME INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS AND LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY POP-UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK WITH WEST WINDS 10-15/15-25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS 25-40 MPH. THE CHANNELED WESTERLY FLOW DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES WILL FAVORED THE STRONGEST WINDS/GUSTS. THE
WINDS MAY HIT BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON FRI...BUT IT
WILL BE WINDY FOR MID-JUNE STANDARDS! HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR JUNE WITH 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS AND A
FEW 80 READINGS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. SATURDAY, FEATURES
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND RUN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. A SOAKING RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAYBE PONDING SOME
WATER IN A FEW SPOTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS SEEN UPSTREAM ON KENX RADAR PASSING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS PASS OVER THE
TERMINALS, VISIBILITIES COULD BE LOWERED BRIEFLY TO MVFR. THIS IS
MENTIONED IN A PROB30 FOR KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU. A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. BROKEN AND OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM
CLOUDS JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND, FOG/MIST COULD DEVELOP
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KGFL AND KPSF, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW
SOON WINDS PICK UP AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS, FOG/MIST COULD
BE LIMITED. THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ARRIVING FROM BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z-10Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED TO MVFR AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE MODERATE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS STARTING BY
ABOUT 13/14Z. WITH MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, LOWERED FLYING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
CURRENT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS 7-11 KT AND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT REMAIN THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO 5-8 KT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WINDS THEN
QUICKLY PICK BACK UP BY MORNING AND ARE SUSTAINED 15-20 KT AND
GUSTING NEAR 35-45 KT BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY HIGHEST WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FT AGL IS LIKELY AFTER ABOUT
10Z TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-048>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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