944
FXUS61 KALY 181420
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TORNADO WATCH 352 IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY EXCLUDING ULSTER/DUTCHESS COUNTIES AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY IN NW CT.
REGIONAL RADARS DEPICTING LOW TOPPED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE LINE WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE
DEVELOPING. UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY, WITH SRH VALUES OF
250-400 M2/S2 EAST OF THE APPROACHING LINE.
AS THE LINE CONTINUES TRACKING EAST, SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN LOW
TOPPED GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. POTENTIAL EMBEDDED ROTATING
CELLS WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO, DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGER AREA GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF CURRENT WATCH INTO
ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COS, WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED, HOWEVER ANY CELLS COULD BECOME DISCRETE AND STILL
HAVE ROTATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED
TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.
2) THERE IS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
3) MAINLY DRIER AND NON-IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY AROUND 992 MB) IS
LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND IT WILL BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC FOR TODAY. ENSEMBLES
AND OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 988 MB OR SO, WHICH IS ABOUT 3-4 STD BELOW
NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAEFS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNUSUALLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION FOR MID JUNE. THIS SETUP, MORE TYPICAL OF THE FALL OR
WINTER, WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO NORTHERN
AREAS FOR TODAY. WHILE GUSTS MAY FALL SHORT OF TYPICAL
ADVISORY-LEVELS, GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE WILL RESULT IN
SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES, AS FULLY LEAFED-TREE LIMBS
WILL FALL EASIER THAN IN THE COOL SEASON. A FEW GUST MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH OR SO, MAINLY FOR THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME POWER
OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE DOWNED TREE LIMBS, SO
THE WIND ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
46 TO 57 MPH AREN'T EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED
FIRST THING THIS MORNING THANKS TO A PASSING WARM FRONT, THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS A
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING RAIN
FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SURGING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RISING THROUGH 70S AND EVEN REACHING THE LOW TO MID
80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT SBCAPE MAY REACH 500-1000
J/KG, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS. WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
50-60 KT RANGE) AND HELICITY (0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
100-300 M2/S2) IN PLACE, THERE ARE THE DYNAMICS AVAILABLE FOR
STRONG STORMS, ALTHOUGH IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WILL
BE THE MAIN QUESTION. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTIVE MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING SIGTOR VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO THE IN THE 1 TO 2
VALUE RANGE. SPC NOW HAS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN A 5% CONTOUR FOR TORNADOES, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
CAMS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A BROAD, BUT SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. THERE COULD BE
SOME CYCLONIC FLOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING, MAINLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT, EACH DAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THURSDAY, BUT VERY COMFORTABLE AND STILL NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN VALLEY AREAS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, ALTHOUGH SOME 40S CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. DAYTIME DEWPOINTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S AS WELL.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AND THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITHIN THE LIGHT RAIN, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR.
THIS PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE DOWN AROUND 14Z, ALTHOUGH IT MAY
TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR CEILINGS TO FULLY RETURN TO VFR.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR ALL
SITES FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, VISIBILITY COULD
LOWER TO IFR AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF AND LAST UNDER AN HOUR, BUT COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE VFR WITH BKN CIGS AROUND
4-6 KFT.
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AT 3-4 KFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT,
BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR.
THE OTHER AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
5-10 KTS (SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KALB). THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE. FOR THE MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL BE 15-20 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
WILL REACH 30-40 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY BY EVENING AND START TO DECREASE, BUT EVEN INTO
TONIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING 15-25 KTS AT
TIMES. WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG SURFACE WINDS, WON'T INCLUDE
LLWS WITHIN THE TAFS AS THERE WON'T BE MUCH DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 2 KFT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-048>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...27
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