157
FXUS61 KALY 191012
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE COUNTY, THE
HELDERBERGS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
SHOWERS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, THE EXACT NORTHERN
EDGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS MAINLY ON THE
LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (AROUND 987 MB) IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK FOR TODAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL
TEMPS ALOFT.
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND GOOD MIXING THANKS
TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT, IT WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY FOR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY BREEZY EVEN IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER DURING
DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20
TO 35 MPH FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THESE GUSTS AREN'T AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY, THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL DOWNED BRANCHES
TODAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS PROBABLY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO THE
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL FOR TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL GUSTS IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT, SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND
A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY
WESTERN AREAS AS WELL. CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED (MAINLY UNDER 500 J/JG) AND
DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY LOW (IN THE 50S) SO NO STRONG STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY,
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE STILL ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE STEADY
SHOWERS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL GET. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS (1.75" OR ABOVE) LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT NORTHERN EXTENT ON THIS DIFFERS
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES.
AT THIS POINT, SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TOTAL
RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR THESE AREAS, WHICH WOULD BE
HELPFUL, AS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY LATELY AND ARE IN
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1). WPC HAS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY, INCLUDING OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. WHILE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY HELP
MITIGATE MOST ISSUES, THE HIGH PWATS WOULD SUGGEST THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH ANY
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WOULD LIKELY JUST BE IN URBAN AREAS. OVERALL,
THE RISK FOR HYDRO ISSUES STILL SEEMS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4-6 KFT, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL, WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
IMPACTING KPOU AND KPSF. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR
WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
DURING DAYTIME HEATING TODAY, SOME ADDITIONAL STRATOCU AROUND 5
KFT WILL DEVELOP, BUT IT SHOULD STAY VFR. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OR WEST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT IT LOOKS
TO STAY DRY FOR THE TAF SITES, SO WON'T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FOR TONIGHT.
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE, IT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY BREEZY AGAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL START THE DAY AROUND 5-10
KTS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE, ESPECIALLY AT KALB. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT, BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 8-10 KTS OR SO FROM A
WESTERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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