401
FXUS61 KALY 200544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED WIND GUST MAGNITUDES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES, WHERE NYS MESONET HAS ALREADY INDICATED GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH YESTERDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
3) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY SATURDAY, THOUGH A BIT LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO REACH 25-30 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN TODAY, SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THESE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-90,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AGAIN TRIGGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH BEST COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT. INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT GREATER/DEEPER SUNDAY,
SO THERE COULD BE SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS. OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK, HOWEVER LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND A SOMEWHAT INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL FORECAST SOUNDING
SIGNATURE COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL WHERE THE TALLEST CONVECTIVE CORES DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA OR NY
MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE
LOW ULTIMATELY TRACKS.
13Z/19 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM TUESDAY
ARE 60-80% NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, AND 40-60% TO THE NORTH.
SIMILAR 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >2" RAINFALL ARE 30-50% FOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY.
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE A STEADY RAINFALL DURING MONDAY MAY ALSO
HAVE UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN INITIAL WET BULB
COOLING OF ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS, WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
ONLY REACHING THE LOWER/MID 60S IF RAIN LASTS MOST OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENSUED SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KALB/KPOU, CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED FOR
KGFL/KPSF WITH CIGS 6-8 KFT AGL AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH 09 UTC/SAT TO RESULT IN
BKN TO OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL AT KALB, KGFL AND KPSF.
KPOU LIKELY REMAINS CLEAR UNTIL THE LAT MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS 2-3 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT KPSF THROUGH 09Z/SAT AND PERSISTING UNTIL NEARLY NOON TODAY.
THEN, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAIN IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EAST. WE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. OUR
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME.
LLWS WAS ADDED TO ALL THE TAF SITES PRIOR TO 11Z-12Z/SAT SINCE
THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 35-40
KT AND THE SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST AT 10 KT OR
LESS AT THE TAF SITES. WEST WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z-15Z/SAT AT 10-15 KT AND WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT. THE WINDS
DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...31/15
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