809
FXUS61 KALY 201813
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN BASED ON
THE LATEST GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDS CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DENSER CLOUD NORTH OF
I-90.
PREVIOUS...
WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN THE CHANNELED AREA OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL
REGION INTO THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS WERE
ALSO LOWERED CLOSER TO A MAV/MET BLEND LOWERING FROM THE NBM
HIGH BIAS THIS PM.
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INCREASED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, GREATER
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
2) ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG NORTH AND EAST
OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
3) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES FOR MON-MON
NIGHT, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. DEEPER MIXING TAPPING INTO MOMENTUM
2-3 KFT AGL /BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER/ BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS WERE BLENDED AND TRENDED UPWARD TOWARDS THE
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREFS
INDICATE MEAN SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
NORTH AND EAST, BUT THE MEAN DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM LAYER) IS
WEAK 10-20 KT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE COMMON FROM NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL REGION,
BERKSHIRES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ADIRONDACK PARK. LAKE GEORGE
REGION, AND SOUTHERN VT. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER, AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS. SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 35-45
MPH MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND WERE SHADED CLOSER TO A MAV/MET MOS BLEND WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE A BIT MORE THAN SATURDAY...AND WE EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS,
BERKSHIRES, THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION, AND UPPER REACHES OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWARD
IF SOME OF THE CAMS ARE RIGHT. THE HREFS SHOW MEAN SBCAPES OF
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 15-25 KT. NOT SURE THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE
TALL ENOUGH FOR ANY ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WITH THE
RESIDUAL COLD POOL, STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (HALF INCH OR LESS) COULD OCCUR WITH
A FEW CELLS. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER (JUNE 21 AT 424 A.M. EDT) WITH 60S AND 70S
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MON-MON NIGHT, AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN STRENGTHENS ESPECIALLY FROM
THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. THE LATEST NAEFS
INDICATES PWATS RISE 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.25-1.75"
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER
TO I-84. WPC IS PROJECTING A 1-2" WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, BUT
TOTALS COULD DROP OFF QUICKLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WHICH VARIES SOME ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE HERE WITH THE
H850-700 FGEN. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT,
SO WE CONTINUED A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON PM
INTO THE EVENING FROM SOUTHERN VT, THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD.
THE 01Z/20 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 12Z/8 AM
TUE ARE 55-85% FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL & SARATOGA
REGIONS, SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD AND AND 40-54% NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN DACKS, AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. 24-HR PROBABILITIES
>2" OF RAINFALL ARE 40-50% SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. THE RAINFALL MAY BE VERY BENEFICIAL IN
THESE AREAS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS. MOST OF THE AREAS ARE IN D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) TO D1
(MODERATE DROUGHT) BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. AS LONG
AS THE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXCESSIVE, WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PONDING OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
COOLED AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE BY 10-15
DEGREES ON MON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
SOME 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD DECREASE
QUICKLY MON NIGHT/TUE EARLY MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
KGFL, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING THAT COULD TEMPORARILY DROP CIGS TO MVFR. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO REFLECTING THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
KGFL, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY BRING DOWN CIGS/VIS TO MVFR/IFR.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY SCATTERED TO CLEAR, WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ON
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST WILL START OFF THIS
TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 25-30 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 23Z-00Z THIS
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPOU
WHILE REMAINING WEAK OUT OF THE WEST AT KPSF. THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR KGFL WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23
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