674
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
TODAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, AND BUMPING UP
POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALSO, FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM, SOME OF THE 12 GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE QPF SHIELD. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS
THE START OF A LARGER TREND OR NOT, BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD SHIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND SUNDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE A LARGELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
AND A COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS IS LEADING TO ~500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE
SOME SMALL HAIL CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DUE TO STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW (<8000 FT) WBZ HEIGHTS, A LACK OF WIND
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM WILL BE IN THE W/NW UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS, BUT THE REST OF THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY IN BETWEEN COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR A STORM AS WELL. SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TOMORROW, SETUP WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH A FEW KEY
DIFFERENCES. AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE BETTER
UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE THAT COULD STIFLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THEREFORE,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HAVE STUCK NEAR NBM, WHICH GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY BETTER
TOMORROW, SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER VS TODAY, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S TO 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MONDAY, A SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION, WITH
PWATS CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.75" FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL OVERLAP WITH A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLOPING BAND OF MID-LEVEL
FGEN, ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH. SO,
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST.
SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW AND THUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS
IS THE BEGINNING OF A LARGER TREND OR MORE OF A BLIP. AT THIS TIME,
HAVE THEREFORE STUCK NEAR NBM QPF, WHICH HAS A WIDESPREAD 1" OR MORE
OF RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH UP TO 2" NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR
AND IN WESTERN CT. SHOULD NORTH TREND CONTINUE, THEN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN COULD BE SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
AS FOR IMPACTS, THIS GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A BENEFICIAL RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. MUCH
OF THIS AREA HAS MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH D0 TO D1 DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THERE PER THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. AT THIS TIME,
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY LEADING
TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. SO, POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES
STILL APPEARS LOW, ASIDE FROM SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN
THE TYPICAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC INDICATED THAT THEY
PLAN TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK ERO CLIPPING OUT I-84 CORRIDOR,
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE BASED ON THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO THAT
WOULD ONLY BE REALIZED IF THE MORE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WERE TO
VERIFY AND ALLOW A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO REACH INTO
OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME, THIS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT EITHER. WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
SOME MORE DETAIL ON LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.
RAIN COMES TO AN END TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNDER THE LINGERING
UPPER TROUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
WITH MORE MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT. AFTER A COOL DAY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO FORM AT KGFL LEADING TO IFR VIS/CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
MVFR CIGS AT PSF BETWEEN 07Z-12Z/SUN. WE CONTINUED TO MESSAGE
THESE IN A TEMPO GROUP WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE,
FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF QUICKLY BY 12Z/SUN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY 15-17Z/SUN WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT AGL.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17-22Z/SUN
REACHING MAINLY KPOU, KPSF AND KGFL. KALB LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON
THESE SHOWERS AND WE JUST USED A VCSH. DURING ANY SHOWER, MVFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH WE
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE IN PROB30 GROUPS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 4 KT OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z/SUN. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
PRIOR TO NOON, AND BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT. THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM BY 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...31/15
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