092
FXUS61 KALY 211802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING,
SUCH AT THE LAKE GEORGE GLENS FALLS AREA, SOUTHERN DACKS AND
VALLEYS NEAR SOUTHERN VT.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM AND PLACED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER MOST OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ON TRACK FOR MON-MON NIGHT, BUT A
SLIGHT DELAY FOR THE ONSET UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. A
0.75"-2.00" RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, AND A MARGINAL RISK WILL BE
IN THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM SOUTHERN VT, THE
CAPITAL REGION, AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD WITH THE
REMOVAL OF THE "SLIGHT RISK" DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND COLLABORATION WITH WPC AND WFO'S OKX AND BOX.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE MORNING, BUT THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE A LARGELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST
AREAS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT ONE MORE
DAY, AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SFC TROUGH WILL
FOCUS SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN YESTERDAY
WITH SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S. THE LATEST HREFS INDICATE MEAN
SBCAPES 250-750 J/KG WITH A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN
YESTERDAY WITH 15-30 KT. WITH THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL AND
ISOLATED TALLER UPDRAFTS, A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL
UNDER HALF INCH WITH GUST WINDS 35-45 MPH, BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE
CAMS HAVE THE BETTER COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AND
DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALL SAID, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIMED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING
AND QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE LATE PM/EARLY PM WITH THE LOSS OF
IT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
OPENING DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER (BEGINS AT 424 AM EDT) WITH
MID 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO LOWER/MID
70S OVER THE HILL AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
COMFORTABLE FOR FATHERS DAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MID 40S
TO MID 50S WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOME ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TAPPING SOME GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE,
AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE
WAVE. THE TIMING BASED ON THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLES
AND NBM IS FOR THE RAIN/SHOWERS TO BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND
LOWERING QUICKLY. THE LATEST NAEFS INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25-1.75" ACROSS THE REGION
MON-MON NIGHT AND THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION
MON PM-MON NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT MON PM INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD, SO
WE CONTINUED A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD,
THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT MAY BE CLOSER TO I-84.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT IT SEEMS THE AXIS FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL STILL BE FROM SOUTHERN VT, THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION, AND
THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A SHARPER DROP OFF
NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND GLENS FALLS/LAKE
GEORGE REGION. WE HAVE 1-1.75" OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS,
WHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH 0.50" TO AN 1.0". LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
AROUND 2.0" OR SO MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO I-84. THE 01Z/21 NBM
CONTINUES TO SHOW 24-HR PROBABILITIES >1" OF RAIN BY 12Z/8AM TUE
IN THE 60-85% RANGE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION,
SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD. PROBABILITIES FOR >2" ARE 20-50% FROM
I-90 SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHEST PROBS CLOSER TO I-84 AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE RAIN ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MON NIGHT THRU
TUE MORNING, AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND MAINE.
THIS CYCLONE AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL, AND MANY LOCATIONS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, BERKSHIRES AND SOME PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT ARE IN D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) TO D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. THE D1 IS ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, LITCHFIELD CO. CT AND MOST OF
THE BERKSHIRES. WE COLLABORATED WITH WPC AND WFO'S OKX AND BOX
ABOUT THE REMOVAL OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS,
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES FROM THE ERO DAY 3 (WHICH WILL BE
DAY 2) "SLIGHT RISK" OR LEVEL 2 OF 4 FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
GRIDDED FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
VERY DRY, AND NOT SURE RAINFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 1-2"/HR. THE
I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE IN A
MARGINAL RISK MON-MON NIGHT. THE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY
HELPFUL FOR THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO I-84, BUT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED 3-4 DEGREES FROM THE NBM WITH THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN-COOLED AIR MONDAY WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOME UPPER
50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE RAIN MON NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE TUE INTO THE WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK (THU-FRI) WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS TO START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIST/FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY, WITH MID-
TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT
ALL TERMINALS AROUND 15Z MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING VIS AND
CIGS DOWN TO BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG GUSTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 23Z-00Z TONIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING UP
TO 4-7 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23
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