521
FXUS61 KALY 211900
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADDED PATCHY
FOG. MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE RAINFALL TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY. STARTING
TO SEE A BETTER CONSENSUS FOR A MORE NORTHERN STORM TRACK AND
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE GIVEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE MORNING. THIS WILL BE A LARGELY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING
IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:55 PM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARLY OVERHEAD, AS IS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS (ALBEIT STILL
SUB-SEVERE) HAVE TRACKED FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND CENTRAL TACONICS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UP 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESS SOUTH AND WEST. DEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
UNIMPRESSIVE, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT AROUND 20-25 KT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE
LACK OF SHEAR, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCH OF THIS CAPE IN
THE -10 TO -30C LAYER COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL,
ESPECIALLY WITH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8-9 KFT. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN RADAR INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE BETTER
SHEAR.
OUTSIDE OF ANY BRIEF SHOWERS/STORMS, IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. WITH A AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S AGAIN. HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT, HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE A SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TOMORROW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC, AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AND WILL HELP
LIFT THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SFC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING S/SW LLJ WILL
AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO 1.6-1.8" (HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS) PER THE LATEST
HREF. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SLOPING WARM FRONT, A BAND OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
WILL PROVIDE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION
FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THAT WE'D LIKE
TO SEE AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE ARE ARE LEAST STARTING TO SEE A BETTER
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AS THE MORE NORTHERN NAM/RGEM HAVE
COME BACK SOUTH, WHILE OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, PLACING IT
FROM AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PAN OUT, A TONGUE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH UP TO AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES (UP TO 1- 1.5" PER HOUR) FOR AREAS AROUND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 2-3"
WHEREVER THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP.
WPC HAS INDICATED THAT THEY PLAN TO KEEP THE MARGINAL ERO ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADKS, WHICH ALIGNS WITH OUR CURRENT
THINKING. WILL CONTINUE THE MESSAGE THAT THIS WILL BY AND LARGE BE A
VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 IN D0 TO D1 DROUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN THE TYPICAL URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, BUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF WE SEE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES REPEATEDLY TRAINING OVER ANY OF THE MORE URBAN
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS, AGAIN, APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER NORTH, OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FGEN IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. FINALLY, WILL MENTION THAT
WITH THE SHIFT NORTH IN THE STORM TRACK, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS) INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OVERALL, THOUGH, SEVERE
THREAT IS LESS OF A FOCUS THAN THAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY, ITS COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN LOWER HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS OUR AREA. WHILE THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SHOWS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY, THIS
IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE NBM FAST BIAS - THURSDAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FOR EASTERN AREAS, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY FOR WESTERN AREAS. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT HUMIDITY
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS TO START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIST/FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT
KGFL AND KPSF. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z MONDAY, WITH MID-
TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE AT
ALL TERMINALS AROUND 15Z MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING VIS AND
CIGS DOWN TO BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG GUSTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 23Z-00Z TONIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING UP
TO 4-7 KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
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