920
FXUS61 KALY 220006
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
806 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ADDED PATCHY FOG. MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE RAINFALL TOMORROW INTO
TUESDAY. STARTING TO SEE A BETTER CONSENSUS FOR A MORE NORTHERN
STORM TRACK AND NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE GIVEN FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE MORNING. THIS WILL
BE A LARGELY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TOMORROW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC, AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH, AND WILL HELP LIFT THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
THE SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING S/SW
LLJ WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION, WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.6-1.8" (HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS) PER
THE LATEST HREF. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SLOPING WARM FRONT, A
BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING FROM
WEST TO EAST.
WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THAT WE'D LIKE
TO SEE AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE ARE ARE LEAST STARTING TO SEE A BETTER
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE AS THE MORE NORTHERN NAM/RGEM HAVE
COME BACK SOUTH, WHILE OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, PLACING IT
FROM AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PAN OUT, A TONGUE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH UP TO AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES (UP TO 1- 1.5" PER HOUR) FOR AREAS AROUND THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 2-3"
WHEREVER THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP.
WPC HAS INDICATED THAT THEY PLAN TO KEEP THE MARGINAL ERO ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADKS, WHICH ALIGNS WITH OUR CURRENT
THINKING. WILL CONTINUE THE MESSAGE THAT THIS WILL BY AND LARGE BE A
VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 IN D0 TO D1 DROUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. THAT
SAID, SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN THE TYPICAL URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, BUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF WE SEE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES REPEATEDLY TRAINING OVER ANY OF THE MORE URBAN
AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS, AGAIN, APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER NORTH, OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FGEN IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT. FINALLY, WILL MENTION THAT
WITH THE SHIFT NORTH IN THE STORM TRACK, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS) INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OVERALL, THOUGH, SEVERE
THREAT IS LESS OF A FOCUS THAN THAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST TUESDAY, ITS COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION, RESULTING IN LOWER HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS OUR AREA. WHILE THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SHOWS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY, THIS
IS LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE NBM FAST BIAS - THURSDAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY FOR EASTERN AREAS, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY FOR WESTERN AREAS. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR AREA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT HUMIDITY
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
06 UTC; HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AT GFL AND EVEN PSF. WE
MAINTAINED THE TEMPO GROUP FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE FROM
07/08 UTC TO 10 UTC BOTH SITES FOR IFR AND MVFR VIS,
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING CIRRUS CANOPY TOWARDS 10 -
12 UTC SHOULD MAKE THE FOG SHORT-LIVED. CLOUDS THICKEN AND
GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS 12 - 15 UTC BEFORE INITIAL
AREAS OF SHOWERS ARRIVE 15 - 18 UTC. HOWEVER, CEILINGS LIKELY
REMAIN VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS. RAIN TURNS STEADY/WIDESPREAD
BY 18 - 19 UTC ACROSS ALL TERMINALS RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN
INTERMITTENT IFR VIS BY 21 - 23 UTC AS RAIN BECOMES HEAVY AT
TIMES. THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY AT PSF
AND POU BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE LATEST
UPDATE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. THEN, SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5KTS DEVELOP BY 15 - 18 UTC BEFORE SHIFTING EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 18 UTC. SUSTAINED WINDS BECOME 5 - 10KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN THE NEXT UPDATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE 30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AT 2KFT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page