160
FXUS61 KALY 230546
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY
TONIGHT, AS THE LATEST CAMS ARE INDICATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS IN PARTS OF ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE ISOLATED HYDRO IMPACTS. 07
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS, RAIN, COOL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE REMOVED FROM OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY ON
TUESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN ADJUSTING POPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A LARGELY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT.
2) NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WET-
BULB PROCESSES HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN
THIS RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY 0.25 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THESE RATES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. IN ADDITION, THE CLOUDS, RAIN, COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS REDUCED THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER REMOVED SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAIN DEPARTS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY (AROUND 500 J/KG) COULD ALLOW FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT ONCE AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING) CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW THE CLEARING TREND ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS
LINGERING FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DRY WEATHER REACHES ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE EVENING. WITH EXTRA CLOUDS
AND SOME SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED A FEW DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING
THE RECENT RAINFALL. BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS IF ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK (AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND) LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KPOU. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AT THESE TERMINALS IN TERMS OF CIGS 200-600 FT AGL AND ALSO SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS IN THE RAIN. FURTHER NORTH, KGFL BEGINS AS
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1.5 KFT AGL, BUT IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-13Z/TUE. WE
REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAFS FROM THE PROB30S WITH
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INSTEAD PLACED MODERATE SHOWERS FOR
KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR/LIFR UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING AND ALMOST NOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU. KGFL
MAY RISE TO MVFR FIRST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/TUE AND VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AS THE SFC LOW MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON, CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KPSF AND
KALB, AND KPOU MAY LINGER AT IFR UNTIL UNTIL THE EARLY PM.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
19Z-23Z/TUE, EXCEPT KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS LINGER UNTIL 23Z/TUE.
SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 06Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH- NORTHEAST 3-6 KT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10 KT BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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