624
FXUS61 KALY 230643
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CAPITAL DISTRICT,
SOUTHERN VT, AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE NBM TODAY DUE TO THE LINGERING
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE.
PATCHY FOG WAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE TACONICS, WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, RECENT WET GROUND AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING ALONG
AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHICH MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
2) NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THU AND FRI.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 243 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING IS NEAR SOUTHEAST
PA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NJ. THIS WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW THAT
FORMS NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE EARLY-MID PM CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW CT. A WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK 'MARGINAL RISK' FOR ISOLATED FLASHING REMAINS
UP UNTIL 12Z/8 AM TUE FOR THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND NW CT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
EXCEED A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR CAUSING PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT HAS BEEN A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, HELDERBERGS AND TACONICS. THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS HAVE HAD LESS THAN A HALF
AN INCH.
THE SECONDARY LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ABUNDANT (MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS) TODAY WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE MID TO LATE
PM. CLOUDS AND THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT NOT AS COOL AND DAMP AS
YESTERDAY. WE WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM TEMPS AND CLOSE TO A
NBM/MAV/MET BLEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE
SKIES CLEAR TO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RECENT WET SOILS AND A
RADIATIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO EVEN AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRATUS ALONG THE WESTER NEW
ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
EXPANSIVE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FOR WED, AS A SFC
ANTICYCLONE SETTLES IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE FOR LATE JUNE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER A COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT (LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
50S) WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER AND THEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
REGION. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL THU-FRI, WHICH
MAKES TIMING OF THE SHORT-WAVES CHALLENGING IN THE SHORT RANGE
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A WARM FRONT INCREASE CLOUDS THU WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE PM THU ESPECIALLY FROM HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT NORTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BASED ON SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS
INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY, AND DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT MAY
BE NEARBY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-90. TEMPS WILL FINISH THE WORK WEEK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S, THOUGH AN UPTICK IN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS PROJECTED IN
THE EXTENDED, AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME
OCCASIONAL RAIN OR PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KPOU. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AT THESE TERMINALS IN TERMS OF CIGS 200-600 FT AGL AND ALSO SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS IN THE RAIN. FURTHER NORTH, KGFL BEGINS AS
MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 1.5 KFT AGL, BUT IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-13Z/TUE. WE
REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAFS FROM THE PROB30S WITH
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INSTEAD PLACED MODERATE SHOWERS FOR
KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR/LIFR UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING AND ALMOST NOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU. KGFL
MAY RISE TO MVFR FIRST BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/TUE AND VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AS THE SFC LOW MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON, CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KPSF AND
KALB, AND KPOU MAY LINGER AT IFR UNTIL UNTIL THE EARLY PM.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
19Z-23Z/TUE, EXCEPT KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS LINGER UNTIL 23Z/TUE.
SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AND CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 06Z.
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH- NORTHEAST 3-6 KT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10 KT BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page