839
FXUS61 KALY 231804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING ALONG
AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHICH MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
2) NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THU AND FRI.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: MINOR DECREASE IN PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BERKSHIRES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DOING WELL THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE SECONDARY LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS ABUNDANT (MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS) TODAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE MID TO
LATE PM. CLOUDS AND THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT NOT AS COOL AND DAMP AS YESTERDAY. WE
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM TEMPS AND CLOSE TO A NBM/MAV/MET BLEND.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 60S TO
AROUND 70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RECENT
WET SOILS AND A RADIATIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO
EVEN AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
EXPANSIVE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THURSDAY EVENING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED, AS A SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES IN FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK. SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WITH A
WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE JUNE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S TO MID
70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AFTER A COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT (LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
50S) WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING OVER AND THEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
REGION. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL THU-FRI, WHICH
MAKES TIMING OF THE SHORT-WAVES CHALLENGING IN THE SHORT RANGE
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A WARM FRONT INCREASE CLOUDS THU WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE PM THU ESPECIALLY FROM HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT NORTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BASED ON SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS
INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY, AND DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT MAY
BE NEARBY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-90. TEMPS WILL FINISH THE WORK WEEK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S, THOUGH AN UPTICK IN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS PROJECTED IN
THE EXTENDED, AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AT KGFL AND KPOU, WHILE KALB MAY JUMP BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR CIGS AND KPSF STAYS FIRMLY UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THAT
TIME. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO MAY PASS OVER KPOU AND KALB THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS FOR THOSE
TERMINALS. CIGS WILL START TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT TO LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM THESE CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE MIST/FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF. THIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY DROP VIS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR, REFLECTED BY TEMPO GROUPS
FROM 07Z-11Z. IF THIS MIST/FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL START OFF THIS TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH KPOU MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER
AND MORE VARIABLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STARTING
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 11Z-12Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB,
KPOU, AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/05
AVIATION...23
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