586
FXUS61 KALY 251041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
2) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. IN ADDITION, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SOME DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT LARGELY DRY,
THEN THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD BRING A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO MOST
AREAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT (UP TO 500 J/KG) COULD
ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
KEEPS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. A GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO 0.75 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE STEADIEST RAIN DEPARTS THE
AREA TO THE EAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN SOME AREAS.
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES
WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. FAST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BULK SHEAR VALUES TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KT.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE TALLER STORMS COULD BRING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION AS WELL AS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. PARTS
OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE CREST OF
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AT
LEAST LOWER 90S SEEMS LIKELY FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX (FEELS- LIKE TEMPERATURES) TO REACH AT LEAST THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IF NOT LOWER 100S WHICH COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES TRACKING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ('RIDGE
ROLLERS') WHICH COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SOME DAYS. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF EACH
SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME
POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY IF THEY CROSS THE REGION
DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT
MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO KALB/KGFL THIS AFTERNOON
BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. A PERIOD
OF STEADIER RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z/FRI. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN OR A
THUNDERSTORM. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS LIKELY FORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
UP TO 12Z/FRI. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10
KT TODAY. WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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