656
FXUS61 KALY 252312
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
2) A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION TOMORROW, THOUGH COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ISOLATED.
3) TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW HOT IT WILL
BECOME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NESTLED IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK EASTWARD BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT, AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LARGELY
WITHIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
TONIGHT. THIS BATCH WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
LAPSE RATES LOOK TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
SHORTWAVE'S COLD POOL OVERSPREADING THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT AND
INTERSECT THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AND, AS THIS
WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PIVOT OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN MINOR
PONDING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TOMORROW, INSTABILITY INCREASES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. 0-6KM, LINE-NORMAL BULK
SHEAR REACHING 40-50 KT PAIRED WITH ~500-800 MLCAPE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD THERE BE
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE PERTAINS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO RACE AHEAD
OF ITS PASSAGE. DETERMINISTIC CAMS SEEM TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN EVEN SHOWERS GIVEN THIS SET UP FOR
TOMORROW, SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKEWISE BE VERY ISOLATED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED IN THE MEDIUM- TO
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE AS EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST OFF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD NEXT WEEK, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO 1-2 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, JULY 4TH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PERIODS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING FOR RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. THAT SAID,
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO TOP THE RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF HEAT THAT WE SEE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE CRESTS
OVER OUR AREA, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF HEAT THAT
WE EXPERIENCE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
GOING FORWARD AND PROVIDE UPDATES WHERE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SATURDAY...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH, VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR, MAINLY FOR
VSBYS, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN GENERALLY
OCCURRING BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/FRI, EXCEPT A BIT LATER AT KPSF AND
KPOU. AFTER THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF, A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, MAINLY FOR CIGS THOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/FRI, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 21Z/FRI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 5-10 KT. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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