162
FXUS61 KALY 260619
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOSTLY
REMOVED FROM OUR AREA FOR TODAY. STILL, SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD BRING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
BRING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) A PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SOME DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WITH
CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDS CAN ERODE THIS MORNING. A TALL BUT THIN CAPE
PROFILE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS TO BRING
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS LOW. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE MARGINAL RISK
MAINLY FOCUSING IT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS, A WARMUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +17 TO +20C (ABOUT +2 STDEV). THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO NEARLY DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S SOME DAYS IN THE VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION, GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARM TO
HOT TEMPS COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES) REACHING AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SOME
DAYS. THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK PLACES MOST OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK FOR
HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH
HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF EACH NIGHT.
BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MAY PASS OVER THE RIDGE ('RIDGE ROLLERS') WHICH
COULD BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY PASS THROUGH DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING.
WHILE THE PASSAGE OF STORMS WILL HELP EASE THE HEAT FOR A SHORT
TIME, THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN REGARDLESS. TIMING AND TRACK
OF EACH SHORTWAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SHORTWAVES MAY
ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTING OF TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SAT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY IMPACTING KPSF/KPOU AS
THE STEADIEST RAIN IS NOW EAST OF KALB/KGFL. MIXED MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS AT KPSF/KPOU
THOUGH SOME IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR AT KPOU. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS, WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR STRATUS TO FORM AT
ALL SITES WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BETWEEN
12-16Z/FRI. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 16-20Z/FRI. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30
GROUP FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT OCCURS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING THOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY BEGIN TO
FORM PRIOR TO 06Z/SAT AT KGFL.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT FRIDAY MORNING THEN WESTERLY AT 5-10 KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND BECOMES LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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