256
FXUS61 KALY 261825
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RESULTING
IMPACTS.
2) TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW HOT IT WILL
BECOME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
ATTACHED TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD. ALOFT, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST, ITS AXIS CENTERED
ALMOST ALONG THE BORDER OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS, MOST SHOWERS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE EITHER QUICKLY DISSIPATED OR WEAKENED
BEFORE EVEN ATTAINING LIGHTNING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSIONS SEEN ON THE 18Z ALY
SOUNDING.
THAT SAID, GIVEN THE CLEARING OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE THROUGHOUT OUR REGION WITH
40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR, DCAPE AROUND 600-700 J/KG, AND PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1". THEREFORE, GIVEN THE FORCING, THOUGH LIMITED, FROM
THE COLD FRONT; SURFACE LOW; AND UPPER SHORTWAVE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THEIR ISOLATED TO HIGHLY
SCATTERED NATURE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESULTING GUSTY
WINDS. IN FACT, ONE SHOWER IN PARTICULAR MOVED OVER THE NYS
MESONET SITE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AND PRODUCED A 41 MPH GUST.
HOWEVER, NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH ANY
RESULTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH TO ONLY ALLOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
A SMALL PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS, A WARMUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +17 TO +20C (ABOUT +2 TO
+2.5 STDEV). THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEARLY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WITH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S SOME
DAYS IN THE VALLEYS FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION,
GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOWER
70S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARM TO HOT
TEMPS COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS- LIKE TEMPERATURES)
REACHING AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SOME DAYS. THE
EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK PLACES MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY,
THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF EACH NIGHT.
BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MAY PASS OVER THE RIDGE ('RIDGE ROLLERS') WHICH
COULD BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY PASS THROUGH DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING.
WHILE THE PASSAGE OF STORMS WILL HELP EASE THE HEAT FOR A SHORT
TIME, THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN REGARDLESS. TIMING AND TRACK
OF EACH SHORTWAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SHORTWAVES MAY
ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTING OF TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS LINGERING LOW STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING
HAS LIFTED. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AT KGFL AND KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT KENX RADAR SHOWS
AN ISOLATED CELL OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARDS KPSF
WITHIN THE HOUR WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTIER
WINDS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS AND THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THOUGH PATCHY FOG/MIST
COULD DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF IF THERE
IS ENOUGH CLEARING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST KPOU COULD ALSO SEE A
LIGHT SHOWER AROUND SUNRISE WHICH COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
WINDS RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT.
BY MORNING WINDS GRADUALLY PICK BACK UP AROUND 5 KT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/33
AVIATION...53
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