538
FXUS61 KALY 280535
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY'S NIGHT
FOR SOME SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS DUE TO THE HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
BASED OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, PEAK OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE HEAT IMPACTS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AND MAY ALSO LINGER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES DURING MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN
HEATRISK IMPACTS MAY REACH THE MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
REGION NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MANAGEABLE LEVELS OF
HUMIDITY. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS, BUT NO FLOODING OR STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST BY
MONDAY AND THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE RISING ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES AROUND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY LATER IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BE GETTING
SQUASHED DOWN FROM THE NORTH THANKS TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (AROUND 597 DM
HEIGHTS AT 500 HPA) WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH, 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP
IN THE TEMPS ALOFT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS MAX
OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING EXPECTED VALUES IN THE 20-22 C RANGE. THERE IS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING, AS BOTH THE ECENSEMBLE AND GEFS
ALSO SUGGEST MEAN VALUES IN THIS SAME RANGE. WITH ENOUGH SOLAR
HEATING, THIS WOULD EASILY ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TEMPS TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT FOR WED-THURS, WITH EVEN
UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAT INDEX (FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES) MAY EXCEED 100 IN VALLEY AREAS. NWS HEAT RISK HAS
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE "MAJOR" CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4), BUT
SOME POCKETS OF "EXTREME" (LEVEL 4 OF 4) ALSO APPEARS FOR SOME
VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY AND ALSO ON FRIDAY, DUE TO THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL DAYS OF EXTREME HEAT WITH LITTLE
RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TYPE OF HEAT WILL RESULT
IN IMPACTS TO ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, AS WELL AS
IMPACTS FOR HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. SOME INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE MULTI-DAY POWER DEMANDS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH, WITH OUR POSITION ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAKE OUR
AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE
RIDGE WHICH COULD LIMIT THE HEATING AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, IF
THE RIDGE IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH, THEN TEMPS ALOFT MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS WHAT'S SHOWN THIS FAR OUT. STILL, THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT TO SUGGEST HEAT-
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY JUST FALL SHORT ON TUESDAY FOR HEAT HEADLINES, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR MANY AREAS AND EXTREME HEAT
WATCHES/WARNINGS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS.
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING HEIGHTS LOWERING SOMEWHAT BY NEXT
WEEKEND, THE HEAT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTREME FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY. STILL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT LOOKS ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONTINUED MUGGY, SO SOME HEAT IMPACTS COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS DISTURBANCES ROLL ACROSS THE TOP OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
THESE FEATURES IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
INITIALLY, MODELS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THERE BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE THANKS TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS FOR SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE, BUT
THERE COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE ML/AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING
THERE SHOULD BE HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
(ESPECIALLY LOW-LEVEL) WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP. IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...PATCHY FOG COULD LEAD TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
FOG AT KALB. ANY FOG LIFTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR POU SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY EVENING,
THOUGH WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT
ON SUNDAY. WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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