467
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES AND/OR EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED
LATER IN TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS
MAY REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE RIDGE PEAKING IN INTENSITY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD (STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 597 DM). LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE HAD THIS RIDGE BUILD A BIT MORE TO THE EAST
COMPARED TO THE PAST DAY OR SO WHICH WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS MORE
ACROSS THE REGION. IN RETURN, THIS MAY ADVECT EVEN WARMER AIR
OVER THE REGION WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES NOW PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO +20 TO +22C (AROUND +3 STDEV OR NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS).
GRADUAL INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. BY TUESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID-80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE VALLEYS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY (DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S) BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE MID-60S TO LOWER
70S ON TUESDAY. SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW PENDING THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS OF THE MOST INTENSE
HEAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW HOT EACH DAY WILL BE
BUT A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST VALLEY AREAS
COULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME LOCALIZED
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MID- HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY REACH THE
MID-80S TO LOWER 90S. HIGH HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES) BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY AREAS AND
90-100 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL
RELIEF EACH NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK IS IN THE MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE, WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED WITH SOME EXTREME HEAT
WATCHES/WARNINGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT.
THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN LATER THIS WEEK AND
DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THIS PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEING LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES ('RIDGE
ROLLERS') TO PASS THROUGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONE POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE LESS COMPARED
TO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THEN MAY INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE
LIKELY LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SOME DAYS. THESE STORMS WILL HELP BRING BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT BUT THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN, REGARDLESS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/MON...FOG AT KPOU/KPSF WILL LIFT BY 13Z/SUN WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR KPOU THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGFL/KPSF. WIND WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KT TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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