324
FXUS61 KALY 281821
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
221 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS BASED ON THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO ADDED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
EXTREME HEAT WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE OF THE AREA
MAY BE NEEDED IN A WATCH OR ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS
MAY REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY. IT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GETTING CLOSE TO
THE AREA BY THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE GETTING FLATTENED AND SQUASHED
FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO DISTURBANCES
SLIDING WITHIN THE FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (AROUND 596 DM
HEIGHTS AT 500 HPA) WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH, 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW 850 HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 20-22 C
ACROSS OUR BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA.
THERE SHOULD BE SUNSHINE AND HEATING FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME
UPPER 90S CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY MUGGY INTO THE 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION MAY IMPACT TEMPS, BUT THE NBM HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THESE IMPACTFUL TEMPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
HEAT INDEX (FEELS- LIKE TEMPERATURES) MAY EXCEED 100 IN VALLEY
AREAS, WITH SOME TOP VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO 110 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON THE LATEST VALUES IN THE FORECAST, HAVE
GONE WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. NWS HEAT RISK HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
"MAJOR" CATEGORY (LEVEL 3 OF 4), BUT SOME POCKETS OF "EXTREME"
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) ALSO APPEARS FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS ON THURSDAY
AND ALSO ON FRIDAY, DUE TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL
DAYS OF EXTREME HEAT WITH LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS TYPE OF HEAT WILL RESULT IN IMPACTS TO ANYONE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, AS WELL AS IMPACTS FOR HEALTH SYSTEMS
AND INDUSTRIES. SOME INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DUE TO THE MULTI-DAY POWER DEMANDS.
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING HEIGHTS LOWERING SOMEWHAT BY NEXT
WEEKEND, THE HEAT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS EXTREME FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY AND SUNDAY. STILL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IT LOOKS
ABOVE NORMAL AND CONTINUED MUGGY, SO SOME HEAT IMPACTS COULD
STILL BE A CONCERN EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH A
SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. SPC DIDN'T OUTLOOK OUR AREA WITH THE
EARLY MORNING DAY 3 OUTLOOK, BUT DID INDICATE THAT IT'S A
POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS, AS IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST CAPE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BY LATE TUESDAY FOR CONVECTION. THE
HIGHEST SHEAR MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OVERLAP FOR SOME SEVERE THREAT ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH EXACT COVERAGE WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THIS POINT, STORMS
MAY JUST BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE AND THE
BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE AS IT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE FOR LATE
THIS WEEK, SO NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS COULD BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR STORMS ON THESE DAYS, BUT THIS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS WELL. MOST ML/AI SEVERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL STORMS IN OUR AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR, BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS FAR OUR. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC TO CHC POPS FOR MOST DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CUMULUS AND CIRRUS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KPOU AND
KPSF WHICH COULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR. AT THIS TIME,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RADIATION FOG LOOKS TO BE AT KPOU WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS UNDER 1000 FT AGL WITH T/TD SPREAD
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND CALM WINDS SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE FOR THE EXTENT
OF FOG COVERAGE IN THE FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE
NEAR 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...33
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