632
FXUS61 KALY 290655
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
255 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NBM TONIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.
EXPANDED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH UP TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT,
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR HEAT INDICES >105, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE WATCH AND
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
FINALLY, MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY FROM SPC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS
MAY REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS, BUT SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:55 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE ADKS AND CATSKILLS TO MID
60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT GOES 16
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ACROSS CT, EXPANDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
FOR MANY OF THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY AREAS, AND ANY AREAS THAT
SAW A SHOWER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG. A 596 DAM
CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY, AND WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY WILL BE MANAGEABLE WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND. HOWEVER, IT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID, WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. IF THERE IS LESS CONVECTION, THEN SOME AREAS IN
THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY MAY GET CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE OFF TO OUR NORTH, ALLOWING UNUSUALLY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO +20 TO +22C WEDNESDAY AND AS HIGH AS +22 TO +24C
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. NBM WARM BIAS STILL APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE, SO WE
LOWERED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY. THAT
SAID, WE COULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 100F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
THURSDAY. WHILE THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY, WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE HIGHER DEW POINTS (LOW 70S), SO HEAT INDICES MAY END
UP BEING SIMILAR BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER
HEAT INDICES MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WE EXPANDED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH UP
TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR WED-FRI. FURTHER EXPANSIONS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MOST AREAS NOT IN AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS WARM TO HOT AND HUMID WITH SOME VALLEY AREAS
POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95F), BUT WE SHOULD
SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 4TH WEEKEND MAY END UP COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST IF THERE IS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH NO REAL LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER,
TOMORROW, A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVERTOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE REMAINS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER
SHORTWAVE, WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A TRACK FURTHER N/NE
WITH LESS CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. MOST CAMS, ON THE OTHER
HAND, HAVE THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE A
QUESTION, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORNING MCS THAT COULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY, WHILE OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W/SW, INSTABILITY LOOKS
BEST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES (UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE) PER THE LATEST HREF WITH AN EML MOVING OVERHEAD.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH MORE CAPPING
THERE. THERE WILL BE DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES, WITH 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
THE BEST OVERLAP OF SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS. SPC
HAS MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
(EXCEPT GENERAL T-STORM RISK NEAR I-84) WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. IF THE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE FORCING TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING OVER OUR AREA, THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. FORCING WILL
BE WEAKER WITH JUST JUST A FEW WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT,
BUT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A VERY WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OCCUR. GIVEN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION,
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY, BUT A FEW
INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY COLLAPSING STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES >3000-4000 J/KG.
THURSDAY AS OF NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY DUE TO LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND A
LITTLE LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT A FEW POP-UP
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT, AI/ML
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AS OF
1:50 AM EDT, ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EXPANDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AND IFR TO LIFR VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS AT PSF. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE A BIT LOWER FOR POU, BUT WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
COUPLE HOURS OF IFR VSBYS AND MIST AT GFL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY NEAR 0. TIMING FOR FOG/MIST LOOKS TO
BE THROUGH AROUND 11Z, AND AFTER THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 4-7 KT FROM THE N/NE AT
ALB/GFL AND N/NW AT POU/PSF THROUGH AROUND SUNSET BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...33
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