181
FXUS61 KALY 291826
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
226 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS, HELDERBERGS, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS IN NY, BENNINGTON AND EASTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY IN VT, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES, AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
HILLS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THESE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO
OR EXCEEDING A HEAT INDEX OF 105 DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL
NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT
FROM AROUND ALBANY AND I-90 NORTHWARD. MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) MAINTAINED FARTHER SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS,
BUT SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEAT DOME/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (500 MB HEIGHTS
OF 594-597 DAM) IS FORECAST BUILD EAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CORE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THE
EXPANSIVE SCOPE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV) AND WITH
HUMID CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S) WILL RESULT
IN EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACTUAL MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WED AN MID 90S TO LOWER
100S THU AND FRI COMBINED WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOKS TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) OF 100 TO 110
WIDESPREAD IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HEATRISK CATEGORIES WILL BE
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE TUE (UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S), BUT EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-94F IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND THE EXTREME
HEAT WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA EXCLUDING
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THESE HIGH ELEVATIONS AREAS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY, AT LEAST FOR WED
AND POSSIBLY THU/FRI. WILL ADDRESS LATER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A COMPOUNDING
EFFECT EACH DAY, AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF AT NIGHT
DURING THIS TIME, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
THEREFORE THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH WILL STRETCH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD FROM WED P.M. THROUGH FRI P.M.
WHILE THE HEAT INDEX EASES SLIGHTLY ON SAT (JULY 4TH), FORECAST
MAX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
WOULD STILL EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY
LEVELS COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR STARTING TUE AND
LASTING INTO WED, AS THE ADVECTION OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
HEAT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND PROPAGATING SE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR CONVECTION,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, PLACEMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY VOLATILE, WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A REMNANT EML OVER THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7- 8DEGC/KM. SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WOULD OCCUR, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS THE
MAIN THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS UPGRADED TO
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND
ALBANY AND I-90 NORTHWARD IN NT AND INTO S. VT TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE REST OF AREA.
ON WED, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE A BIT MORE CAPPED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFT FARTHER EAST, BUT THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH
HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILDING, SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG,
WITH 20-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LARGE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE, AND
AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR, THREATS FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EXIST. CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS TUE AND WED. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE MOST OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OUTLOOK FOR WED, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY,
BUT ALSO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE OF A CAP WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON THU, SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORM CHANCES THAT DAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME FLATTER
WHILE A SURFACE FRONT POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KPSF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KPSF
WHERE VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE LOWERED TO IFR/LIFR IF FOG DOES INDEED
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE FEW/SCATTERED WITH PASSING
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE NORTHWEST/NORTH 4-6 KT BEFORE BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 4-6 KT BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-
084.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ025.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...33
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