856
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR THE HEAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXISTING WATCH. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 105-110
DEGREES FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE COVERAGE. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE MADE TO
THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
PARTS OF THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS,
BUT SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 3:15 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, BUT IS STILL EXERTING
ENOUGH INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE COMFORTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW TO MID
50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN
YESTERDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW TODAY,
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A 596 DAM CLOSED UPPER
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY, TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER THIS
WEEK BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS. TODAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S. A FEW TOWNS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE OF >95F HEAT
INDICES WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEAT ADVISORIES.
OTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD BE IF
THERE'S MORE CONVECTION AROUND THIS AFTERNOON, OR IF CONVECTION
MOVES IN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID DAYS OF
THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS OF UP TO +22C TOMORROW AND UP TO +24C
THURSDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TOMORROW,
WITH SOME LOW 100S POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FURTHER WITH LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 70S DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW. WE COLLABORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE NBM, BUT WILL STILL LIKELY
SEE MANY VALLEY AREAS SURPASS EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
(HEAT INDICES >105F) TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. EVEN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES THESE DAYS. THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION AROUND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AS THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF
EXPECTED WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY FOR MANY
VALLEY AREAS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
BACK SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FRIDAY A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS, BUT VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90
COULD STILL REACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE CONVECTION AROUND,
BUT MANY VALLEY AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO UPGRADING THE EXISTING EXTREME
HEAT WATCH TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THE FACT THAT MANY AREAS IN
THE WATCH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY, WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND OPTED TO
WAIT 1 OR 2 MORE FORECAST CYCLES BEFORE MAKING ANY UPGRADES TO
HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OTHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS IN JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NORTH
OF LAKE HURON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED UPPER
SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
TRACK ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL THETA E GRADIENT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. SO, WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WHEN
THESE FEATURES ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT THESE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THIS MORNING, ARRIVING AS A TRUE MCS, OR IF THEY
WILL WEAKEN AND RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTION ARE STILL ON THE TABLE GIVEN
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
IMPRESSIVE WITH A 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND 45 KT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 KM AGL. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALSO
RESULT IN INVERTED V PROFILES AND DCAPE OF UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER AND ARRIVE AS A TRUE MCS, BUT SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LONG,
FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. TORNADO RISK, WHILE NON-ZERO, LOOKS
LOW GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND ONLY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE TO
HODOGRAPHS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS, SEVERE OR NOT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY.
TOMORROW, UPPER FORCING LOOKS MORE NEBULOUS WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS DRAWING CLOSER AND NO CLEAR TRIGGER MECHANISM. THERE
IS ALSO MORE LOW-LEVEL CAPPING THAT COULD MAKE CI MORE
DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, WITH AN EML AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ATOP VERY WARM AND MOIST BL, INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE WITH 3000-4000 K/KG OF SBCAPE. SHEAR, WHILE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAY, MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. BARRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE (WHILE NOT LIKELY, IS STILL ON
THE TABLE / BEING SHOWN BY SOME CAMS) CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE TERRAIN AND ALONG ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN THREAT WOULD AGAIN BE
DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE VERY WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THEIR MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WILL
NOTE THAT ANY POWER OUTAGES FROM SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WOULD BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE EXTREME HEAT
THAT IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER YET RESULTING IN A
STRONGER CAP. ANY UPPER FORCING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WOULD LIKELY BE DISPLACED TO OUR N/NE. THEREFORE, WHILE
INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY,
WE ARE EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY AT THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRACK
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL ALSO HELP ACT AS A TRIGGER MECHANISM. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR OUT, WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND BE UNDER MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT, SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WHICH IS STILL BEING
HINTED AT BY MEDIUM RANGE AI/ML GUIDANCE. SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN, WHILE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT WOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRIER.
WHILE IT IS A LESSER THREAT THAN THAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WILL
ALSO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PWATS OF 1.75-2", WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 KFT, AND
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK ERO TODAY AND TOMORROW. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT,
ESPECIALLY WITH MOST AREAS GOING ON 4-5 DAYS SINCE THE LAST
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED ISSUED COULD
ARISE SHOULD ANY TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION OCCUR OVER
ANY OF OUR URBAN AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS OF 6:30 AM EDT. NO LONGER EXPECTING ANY FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING. WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. STILL FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH GROUPS A COUPLE HOURS
EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE AND HAVE ALSO NARROWED
THE PROB30 GROUPS BY A COUPLE HOURS. WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS,
GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS SO WILL JUST MENTION HERE.
OTHERWISE, AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY COULD SEE SOME
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR STRATUS WHERE WINDS REMAIN AT 4-8 KT (ALB,POU)
WITH SOME FOG/MIST POSSIBLE IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER (PSF, GFL). THE
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE TAFS MAY NEED TO BE REFINED IF ANY
TERMINALS GET MISSED BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
LIGHT WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE
S/SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
TONIGHT REMAIN AT 4-8 KT AT ALB/POU BUT LESS THAN 5 KT AT
GFL/PSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-
084.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ025.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...33
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