504
FXUS61 KALY 010536
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FOR MCS TRACKING TOWARDS NORTHERN NY FROM SOUTHEAST THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE RAISED TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS
WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE ALSO ADDED IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOW FAR THIS TRACKS SOUTHWARD IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE MLCAPE IS LIMITED ON THE SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH CIN FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SHOWERS MAY TRACK CLOSER TO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION. THE POPS ARE
MORE IN SYNC WITH WFO BTV CHANGES FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. /15
PREVIOUS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE STORMS
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
WHICH INCLUDES SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS THE
ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES.
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT FROM
AROUND ALBANY AND I-90 NORTHWARD, AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK BEGINNING TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL FAIRLY LOW REGARDING COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS, BUT
SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (500 MB HEIGHTS OF
594-597 DAM AND +2 TO +3 STDEV) WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY, ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA, BUT THE EXPANSIVE SCOPE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +2 TO
+3 STDEV) AND WITH HUMID CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID
70S) WILL RESULT IN EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS FOR MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS BEGINNING WED. ACTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WED AND MID 90S TO LOWER 100S THU AND FRI COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS LOOKS TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX (FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES) OF 100 TO 110 WIDESPREAD IN LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH EVEN 95-100F HEAT INDICES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
HEATRISK CATEGORIES WILL BE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WED-FRI WHERE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES OF 105-111F, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WHERE MAX HEAT
INDICES OF 95-104F ARE FORECAST. ESSENTIALLY THE AREAS THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY UNDER THE WATCH HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A COMPOUNDING EFFECT EACH DAY, AS THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH RELIEF AT NIGHT DURING THIS TIME, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
THU LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY, AS ALB MAY MAKE A RUN AT 100F.
THE LAST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT ALB WAS BACK IN 1953,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS REACHED 99 A FEW TIMES IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. AS
OF NOW, WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 99F AT ALB FOR THU.
WHILE THE HEAT INDICES EASE SLIGHTLY ON SAT (JULY 4TH),
FORECAST MAX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
WOULD STILL EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES COULD
BEGIN TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #423 HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 7 PM AS
THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN
ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP UP OVER INTO THIS EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND ALBANY
AND I-90 NORTHWARD IN NT AND INTO S. VT THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE REST OF
AREA FARTHER SOUTH. REFS SHOWING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT THOUGH, AS A
REMNANT EML APPROACHES TONIGHT. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CLUSTERS/LINES EXPECTED. AS PWATS INCREASE, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS, BUT RELATIVELY FAST
MOVEMENT SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT FLASH FLOODING.
ON WED, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPED AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFT FARTHER EAST, BUT THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. WITH HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILDING, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS IF THEY CAN DEVELOP,
WITH A HIGH MAGNITUDE OF SBCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG, ALTHOUGH 0-6
KM SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AROUND 20-25 KT FROM THE REFS. WET
DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT ON
WED. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OUTLOOK
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A STRONGER CAP ON THU, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN POPS < 20%. WITH
SIMILAR PATTERN ON FRI, AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN
DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHILE FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT
GFL/PSF, A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS IS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF WINDS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
HELP MIX OUT THE FOG/MIST AT GFL, OR IF IT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT
FOG/MIST IS ABLE TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND/OR DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO ALB/GFL, SO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FOG/MIST PERSISTING AT PSF
WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND LIKELY A
FEW HOURS BEYOND. FOR ALB, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT
FOG WILL FORM, BUT IF IT DOES BEST CHANCE IS RIGHT AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT POU, BUT
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 08-09Z.
FORTUNATELY, BY 12Z, AND REMNANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AND FOG SHOULD HAVE MIXED OUT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH MID-MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH JUST SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION IS LOW. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR POU AND
POSSIBLY PSF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WITH SCT TO BKN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
INCREASING TO 4-8 KT FROM THE S/SW TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...07/15
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...33
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