874
FXUS61 KALY 020607
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #432 TO
INCLUDE ALBANY, MONTGOMERY, SCHENECTADY AND RENSSELAER COUNTIES.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CAPITAL REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE INITIAL WATCH. THESE STORMS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.
07
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1
INCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:30 PM...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HEAT HEADLINES
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX
(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 95 AND 115
DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S IN EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY IS STILL
ON TRACK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 90S. POUGHKEEPSIE AREA HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF
REACHING OVER 100 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF PLENTY OF
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OCCURS. CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS OF STAYING COOL AND STAYING HYDRATED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AGAIN
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS. A VERY WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, SOME AREAS IN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE
ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MORE
CONVECTION AROUND, BUT ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID AND UPPER 80S (LOW 90S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY), BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 2:30 PM...BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z ALY
SOUNDING, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT, WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING 60+ MPH WINDS
AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. WHERE STORMS DEVELOPS CONTINUES TO BE THE
LOW CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE EQUATION TODAY, AS THEY COULD BE
ISOLATED AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED IF STORMS GET ENOUGH ENERGY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO END BY
8 PM, BUT BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO HEAD INDOORS WHEN THUNDER ROARS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORCING IS LESS EVIDENT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A COUPLE RIPPLES MOVING
OVERTOP THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY, IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS SOME PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE. WITH NUMEROUS OFBS LEFTOVER
FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AND
HODOGRAPHS ARE SHORTER, SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS OPPOSED TO MORE COHERENT LINE SEGMENTS
LIKE YESTERDAY. THAT SAID, CAPE VALUES >3000J/KG AND DCAPE >1000
J/KG WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. DESPITE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, IMPRESSIVE CAPE THROUGH
THE HGZ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS
WELL.
CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS LOWER THURSDAY, WITH MORE CAPPING, THE
RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE CLOSER, AND THE BETTER UPPER FORCING
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE REGION. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADKS, LIKELY DUE TO HIGH TO EXTREME
CAPE AGAIN AND SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR, BUT THE THREAT IS VERY
CONDITIONAL UPON SOME SORT OF TRIGGER MECHANISM BEING ABLE TO
BREAK THE CAP.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EACH DAY WILL STILL FEATURE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
WITH STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 2:05 AM
EDT, ALTHOUGH EXPECTING PATCHY FOG/MIST WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT GFL/PSF AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS DIMINISH. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT ALB AS WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT
HERE, SO WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS WITH MIST HERE.
FOG/MIST QUICKLY DISSIPATES BY 12Z THIS MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED VCSH
GROUPS FOR ALB/PSF/GFL WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THAT SAID, STILL TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-
10 KT FROM THE S/SW THIS MORNING THEN VEERING TO THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...35/05
AVIATION...35
CLIMATE...33
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