116
FXUS61 KALY 021732
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE: AS OF 6:45 AM EDT: LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR MARGINAL RISK
TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT
WE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TOMORROW, AND MONITORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, FOR SATURDAY.
NO CHANGES TO EXISTING HEAT HEADLINES. STILL EXPECTING DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 3:10 AM EDT...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER
THIS EVENING HELPED COOL THINGS OFF AFTER A VERY HOT DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM MID 60S IN THE ADKS TO UPPER 70S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, WHICH MISSED MUCH OF THE EVENING CONVECTION.
WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
IT WILL STILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
TODAY, A 597 DAM CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO OUR REGION AS IT SLIDES OVER THE APPALACHIANS. 850
MB TEMPS WILL SOAR TO +24C. WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING AND A WEST
WIND EXPECTED, THIS WILL HELP BOOST SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 90S
WITH SOME LOW 100S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WE'RE ALSO NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH CONVECTION TODAY, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY, BUT NOT QUITE
TO THE EXTENT OF YESTERDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING.
NEVERTHELESS, HEAT INDICES WILL BE WIDESPREAD 105-110F FOR
VALLEY AREAS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER POCKETS POSSIBLE. NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT
SOUTHWARDS WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HOT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME
POINT SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FRIDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY, WITH SATURDAY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER STILL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE SAME AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY, ONLY THE HUDSON VALLEY
FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA (105F HEAT INDICES) FRIDAY. WE MAY THEREFORE BE
ABLE TO DOWNGRADE SOME ZONES FURTHER NORTH TO HEAT ADVISORIES, AND
SOME EXISTING ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION TO ISSUING THESE ON THIS SHIFT, BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PROGRESSIVE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE ON SATURDAY, WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, BUT MOST AREAS FALL A COUPLE TO A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE RIDGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF CONVECTION UNTIL
THIS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE ISOLATED CELLS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION,
BUT OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD STILL GET IN ON THE ACTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SBCAPE WILL AGAIN BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AT OVER
3000 J/KG THANKS IN PART TO A REMNANT EML AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES YET AGAIN. MORE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING MAY INITIALLY WORK
AGAINST CI, BUT WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP AS DCAPE VALUES REACH
1000-1250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY MODEST AT AROUND
20 TO MAYBE 30 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER, SO EXPECTING CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WITH PERHAPS A FEW BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF THE UPPER
FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH. SPC HAS A GENERAL RISK FOR SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS, LIKELY DUE TO LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MORE
OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH BETTER
HEIGHT FALLS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STEEP, BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE UP TO 1500-2500
J/KG OF SBCAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
IMPRESSIVE, INCREASING TO 30-35 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SOME TRANSIENT/SPLITTING
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES LEADING TO MORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS AS COLD POOLS COALESCE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR MOST OF OUR REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE CATSKILLS. AN
EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR
THE NEXT ROUND OF RIDGE-ROLLING UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. INSTABILITY LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER,
UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF AM CLOUD COVER AROUND. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHEAR AND LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS, SO WE COULD SEE SOME MORE
STORM ORGANIZATION AGAIN WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WILL ALSO MENTION THAT ANY STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD
HAVE VERY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH A VERY THICK
AREA OF CAPE THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE REGION.
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS. OUR DETERMINISTIC (NBM) FORECAST
PAINTS A WETTER PICTURE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS ACTUALLY THAT CONVECTION HELPING TO PUSH THE
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH UPER CONFLUENCE IN ITS
WAKE MAY ACTUALLY LEAD TO A FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY AND MUCH OF MONDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHLIGHTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT KALB, KPOU,
AND KPSF. THESE STORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IF THEY DO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST/FOG AT KGFL
AND KPSF IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS, BUT SAID PERIODS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KTS EXPECTED AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33
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