990
FXUS61 KALY 022004
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR TOMORROW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND TACONICS AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
BECOME SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAT
IMPACTS COULD OCCUR ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW YORK VALLEYS.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF ALBANY TODAY WITH PRIMARY
CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COULD SEE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY
HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:30 PM...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES)
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 95 AND 115 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 90S IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS. DUTCHESS COUNTY AIRPORT IN POUGHKEEPSIE AND THE RED HOOK
NYS MESONET HAVE RECORDED SO FAR TODAY A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100
DEGREES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, HEAT
HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS IN STORE AGAIN
TONIGHT FROM THE HUMIDITY AND WARM AIR TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF STAYING COOL, STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS WHEN ADVENTURING OUTDOORS.
FOR TOMORROW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE LAST TWO
DAYS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE PRESENT TO BE A STRONG FACTOR FOR FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S DURING AFTERNOON.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST
THREE DAYS AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER ON SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF
STAYING COOL AND STAY HYDRATED THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z ALY SOUNDING, THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ONE TO TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY AS LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, BUT DUE TO STRONG CAPPING, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHERE AND IF A SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP HERE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN CANADA, NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9
PM. BY MIDNIGHT, RAIN SHOWER AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMES TO AN END FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR TOMORROW, HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AS THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD, AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH HELPING DRIVE THE INGREDIENTS
NEEDED FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS NEEDED,
BETWEEN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TOMORROW EVENING WE COULD
SEE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOR SATURDAY, EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WITH CHANCES DECREASING BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. CHANCES
ARE LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF ALBANY FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM, THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND WHEN THUNDER ROARS, HEAD INDOORS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHLIGHTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT KALB, KPOU,
AND KPSF. THESE STORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IF THEY DO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST/FOG AT KGFL
AND KPSF IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15-20 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS, BUT SAID PERIODS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KTS EXPECTED AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33
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