172
FXUS61 KALY 032327
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #448 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SCHOHARIE,
GREENE AND ULSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED IF THIS WATCH NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RELIEF WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY BUT THE RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
2) MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
ON SOUTHWARD.
3) COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN +18 AND +21C THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS REACHING THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND THE 80S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY MAY
REACH 100 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
(DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S) LEADING TO FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90 AND 105 DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS BEING THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF HEAT, DESPITE IT NOT
BEING AS HOT OR HUMID AS YESTERDAY, THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL
HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES
THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK TO +16 TO +19C WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM/HOT FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID-80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ON SATURDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE NEEDED ELSEWHERE.
THE NWS HEATRISK REMAINS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT BUT LOWERS
IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORIES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2500 J/KG OF CAPE TODAY
AND 750-1500 J/KG OF CAPE TOMORROW. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THE THREAT
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 PER THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SCHOHARIE, GREENE
AND ULSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED IF THIS WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER AREAS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TOMORROW ON THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER BUT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT COULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER FORCING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. IT
WILL BE LESS HUMID AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S TO
MID-60S. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING, MAINLY THROUGH
04Z/SAT, AT KALB, KPSF AND KPOU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS COULD OCCUR SHOULD A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR PASS THROUGH THESE
TAF SITES. ON SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD ANY PASS ACROSS A TAF SITE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST AT
KALB OVERNIGHT, WHILE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT ELSEWHERE. ON
SATURDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TOWARD OR AFTER 00Z/SUN AT KGFL. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JULY 2, 2026
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ059-060-
064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-042-
058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-
015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...33
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