219
FXUS61 KALY 041822
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAD EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD INTO ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY,
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE POSING AN INCREASED RISK
FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
2) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY EVENTS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 1 AND 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
3) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT WHERE HEAT
INDEX VALUES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. ELSEWHERE, A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS HAS BEGUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING NORTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THERE IS GREATER HEATING AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NEARLY
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS TOTAL
PRECIP MAY REACH 1" TO 3" FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IT HAS DRY
RECENTLY AND MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINFALL, BUT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GETTING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS,
BUT A WET AND COOLER MONDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED BUT NO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUNDAY...CURRENT KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MOVING DOWN OFF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT KGFL, KALB,
AND KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR AND KALB
AND MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT KGFL WITH LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORE SOUTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY AT KPOU BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 02Z
TONIGHT REDUCING VIS TO IFR. KPSF COULD ALSO SEE A THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT IT WILL REACH THIS FAR
NORTH, HOWEVER IF IT DOES, VIS COULD BE LOWERED TO MVFR. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF PATCHY MIST/FOG OCCURRING AT KPOU AND KPSF
FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. BY MID MORNING, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE
RETURNED TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE OUT WITH MAINLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 6-11 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE STRONGER WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS THEN SHIFT MORE EASTERLY RANGING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ059-060-
064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/33
AVIATION...53
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