994
FXUS61 KALY 050057
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
857 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
2) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENING. A MIX OF DISCRETE AND
INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SCHOHARIE, ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HIT THE HARDEST RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES. WE APPRECIATE EVERYONE WHO HAS SENT US DAMAGE
REPORTS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NEARLY
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS TOTAL
PRECIP MAY REACH 1" TO 3" FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IT HAS DRY
RECENTLY AND MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINFALL, BUT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GETTING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS,
BUT A WET AND COOLER MONDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED BUT NO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/MON...LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH
KPOU AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING BRIEF VSBYS TO
AT LEAST IFR AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY 01-02Z/SUN AT
KPSF. OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG MAY FORM AT
SOME SITES WHERE VSBYS AND/OR CIGS COULD LOWER TO IFR. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS AT KPOU DUE TO THE
HEAVY THUNDERSTORM. SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
KPOU BETWEEN 21-24Z/SAT. WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT
THEN VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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