014
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
2) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENING. A MIX OF DISCRETE AND
INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY WITH SCHOHARIE, ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HIT THE HARDEST RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES. WE APPRECIATE EVERYONE WHO HAS SENT US DAMAGE
REPORTS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NEARLY
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. AN AREA OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS TOTAL
PRECIP MAY REACH 1" TO 3" FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IT HAS DRY
RECENTLY AND MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINFALL, BUT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GETTING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS,
BUT A WET AND COOLER MONDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE. RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED BUT NO RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR MOST SITES, ALTHOUGH
KPOU IS SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF MVFR MIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL
THIS PAST EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND EXPECTED
LIGHT BREEZE TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD THICK FOG TO DEVELOP THERE. WHILE
SOME MVFR MIST CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IT
SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. ELSEWHERE, PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS WITHIN PERIODS OF THIN CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR
SOME MIST/FOG TO TRY TO DEVELOP AT KGFL, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.
WILL ALLOW A TEMPO THERE FOR SOME BRIEF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
IT'S RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ANY FOG/MIST THERE
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION, BUT WILL START
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 BECOMING THICKER BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS
SUNSET, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL
THERE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. WITHIN ANY RAINFALL, VISIBILITY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR RANGE. ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BECOME BKN- OVC AROUND 3500-5000 FT FOR THE OTHER SITES.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page