155
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MORE OF THE
AREA FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN LATE TODAY AND
TUESDAY. WITH THIS STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACES, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, WITH LOWERING VALUES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS
ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF
SIGNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. RAINFALL RATES MAY EASILY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SETUP. THE 00Z SPC
HREF PMM 3HR TOTALS SHOWS POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH ARE
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE. EVEN THE NBM HAS UP TO 30%
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR 6-HR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING AN
INCH, WHICH IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY FOR BLENDED GUIDANCE.
CAMS SUGGEST PERIODS OF REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT NORTHERN
EXTENT DOES VARY WITHIN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AND IT'S UNCLEAR
JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL GET.
THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES SHOWING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE. WHILE MANY MODELS SHOW BULLSEYES OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL, THEY VARY WHETHER THESE WILL BE WITHIN OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING TO
GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. WPC HAS ALSO INCREASED THEIR DAY 2 (MON INTO MON
NIGHT) OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IT WON'T BE
SURPRISING FOR SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST TO SEE A LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT'S
EXACT LOCATION IS STILL VERY UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR MOST SITES, ALTHOUGH
KPOU IS SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF MVFR MIST DUE TO THE RAINFALL
THIS PAST EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AND EXPECTED
LIGHT BREEZE TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD THICK FOG TO DEVELOP THERE. WHILE
SOME MVFR MIST CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IT
SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR. ELSEWHERE, PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS WITHIN PERIODS OF THIN CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR
SOME MIST/FOG TO TRY TO DEVELOP AT KGFL, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.
WILL ALLOW A TEMPO THERE FOR SOME BRIEF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
IT'S RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ANY FOG/MIST THERE
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BE LIGHT FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION, BUT WILL START
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 BECOMING THICKER BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS
SUNSET, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL
THERE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. WITHIN ANY RAINFALL, VISIBILITY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR RANGE. ELSEWHERE, IT SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
WILL BECOME BKN- OVC AROUND 3500-5000 FT FOR THE OTHER SITES.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page